DHL海运市场更新——2025年6月

JUNE 2025–PUBLICATION DATE JUNE 5TH, 2025 Excellence. Simply delivered. Content Ocean Freight Market Outlook June 2025 Freight Rates Capacity Outlook Regulations/News •Status of US tariffs involvesongoing changes anduncertainty•IEEPA Tariffs invalidated by USCourt of International Trade onMay 28thbut stay granted withinhours of government appeal withbriefing schedule set throughJune 9th to decide way forward•US administration outlinesalternative avenues to imposetariffs e.g. Sec. 122, 301, 232,338•EU potential 50% tariffpostponed to 9thJuly •TP capacity projected to risesharply in next 4 weeks, withcarriers adding extra loaders,resuming services, and newcarriers entering the market.YTD, capacity increased by anaverage of 16%. Near-termcapacity still tight, due to shipsredeployed to other routes.•Potential equipment shortages inAsia from blank sailings inApril/early May limiting therepositioning of emptycontainers back to China.•Port congestion at key Asian &European ports and weather-related delays •The US pausing tariffs onChinese goods from 145% to30% and China reducing tariffson US exports from 125% to 10%for 90 days, has led to a rapidrebound in ocean freightcontainer demand on the China-US route, causing an early andintense peak season as importersrush to replenish inventoriesbefore the tariff window closesin August.•Continued solid demand in andout of Europe. Increased demandinto Latin America. UNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC)UNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC) A “FREIGHT TRAIN” IS COMING AND THE BULLWHIP IS AT OUR DOORSTEP... ApriltoMay Jul onwards Bullwhip Effect Tariff disruptions | Summary: Bullwhip impact Market Developments Global container tradegrew+6% inFebruary, slowing down since itspeak in December. Carriers are still placing orders fornew vessels, with 52 added to theorder book last month, over half ofwhich were ordered from Chineseshipyards. The major container carriers havenot returned their ships to theSuez route, despite efforts of theSuez Canal Authority. The numberof vessels taking the Cape routehas remained the same since theannouncement of the US-Houthiceasefire deal on May 6th. Demand Global container tradegrew+6% inFebruary, slowing down since itspeak in December. In February, the volumedevelopment by trade chartshowed mixed performance acrosstrades, with Asia-East Med at 22%growth, while the Transpacific WB,Asia-Oceania and to a smallerextentthe Transatlantic WB faced asignificant decline. Demand is expected to remainvolatile due to uncertainties in thedevelopment of tariff war. Regional Market Development–Major Trades Market Development on Key Regional Tradelanes Demand on most Asia outboundlane exceeds capacity leading tooperational challenges and serviceconstraints. Volumes to South America will pickup in June with the traditional startof the peak season. Volatility is expected to persist astrade tensions and politicaluncertainties dampen businessoutlook. Port Congestion Congestion at large North American ports, especially LA/LB, worsened compared to the previous weeks, with 38 ships waiting inSan PedroBay, up from 29 in week 18. Mid-volume ports saw a slight increase, with 6 vessels at Vancouver.High-volume Asian ports experienced a slight decrease in congestion, with Qingdao improving from 106 to 78 waiting ships, whileShanghai and Ningbo remained congested. Mid-volume Asian ports were mostly stable, except for Surabaya, Laem Chabang, and TanjungPriok.European high-volume ports improved but still faced significant congestion, as seen in Antwerp, where waiting ships dropped from45 to 30.Mid-volume South Asian ports remained congested, while Oceania showed improvement but remained significant. Mid-sized African portsstayed manageable, and Latin American ports saw a decrease in congestion but remained moderately congested. Source: Linerlytica, Drewry, DHL; congestion measured in vessels at anchorage and vessels at port Schedule Reliability In April, schedule reliabilityimproved by 1.7ptpMoM to58.7%, the highest sinceNovember 2023.It is howeverworth noting that Blank Sailingsare excluded by these measures.Significant regional improvementswere noted, except on thebackhaul trades Europe-Asia andNorth America-Asia. Congestion is expected to worsen inAsian ports in June as more vesselsare redirected from Europe toaddress the heightenedTranspacific demand. Rising volumes, constrained space,and imbalances in equipmentcontinue leading to delays. DHL Global Forwarding| OFR Market Update | June 2025 Rates Spot rates on Transpacific routeshave surged by 27% since earlyMay. Increase is driven byheightened bookings andsuccessful general rate increases(GRIs) implemented on May 15th Outlook remains uncertain.Shippers are strongly advised toplan proactively, as ongoingcapacity constraints and elevatedrates are likely to persistthroughout the summer. DHL Global Forwarding| OFR Market Update | June 2025 BACKUP Regional Market Development–Additional Trades GDP Growth & Bunker