DHL海运市场更新——2025年7月

ISummaryIITariff DisruptionsIIIMarket DevelopmentsIVDemandVPort CongestionVISchedule ReliabilityVIIRatesVIIIBackup Material–Market Developments Additional Trades–GDP Growth & Bunker Prices–Market Volumes per Trade–Ocean Carrier AlliancesContent Ocean Freight Market Outlook July 2025Source: DHL, Accenture Cargo, S&P Market Intelligence, Drewry, Linerlytica•A ceasefire in the Iran-Israelconflict is holding after the U.S.strike on Iran's nuclear facilities,reducing risks for shippingthrough the Strait of Hormuz.•Carriers, having added capacityon the Transpacific quickly tocapture early gains, now faceoversupply as the momentumslows. Blank sailings coming.•In the Asia-Europe trade, themarket remains strong, withcapacity aligned with demand.•The Asia to the ECSA market isfacing a capacity shortage.Capacity Outlook•Growthrates expected tosoften,despite improved financialconditions. Anticipation of highertariffs boosted growth, but effectwill continue to bestop/go.•S&PGlobal’sPMIs showweakening global growthmomentum in early Q2.Downturn in June’s PMI datalikely due to recent Middle Eastdevelopments and upcomingU.S. "reciprocal" tariffs deadline.•Global demand will be sensitiveto the Israel-Iran conflict'sevolution.•Volume in and out of Europeremain strongDemand OutlookDHL Global Forwarding| OFR Market Update | July 2025 •On the Transpacific route, spotrates are falling sharply on WCwhile dropping slower on EC.•Worsening congestion at EuropeNorth Continent ports as wellhas increased may impact rates.•Strong demand into EC LATAMmeans significant rate increases(+122% over the last 4 weeks)whereas WC LATAM follows theTP trade and rates on the decline.Freight Rates •Uncertainty remains for shippersregarding the outcome of July9th deadline for the pause onU.S. reciprocal tariffs. Thedeadline may be postponed forsome countries, but specifics areunclear. Legally enforceabledecisions are the primaryconcern, as past statementshaven't always resulted inbinding legislation.Regulations/News 3 % change YoY in TEUMarket DevelopmentsSource: 1) Accenture Cargo; 2) Drewry, net addition = delivery minus scrapping; 3) Alphaliner; 4) Alphaliner,LinerlyticaDemand Development1)Nominal Capacity Development2)YTD Mar: 9.4%mTEUDHL Global Forwarding| OFR Market Update | July 2025-11-9-8-9-6-9-5-3-133 381129641067108J’23MMJSNJ’24MMJSN051015202530354020242026F2027F2028F2029F2025F2018 2019 2020 2021 202222.023.0202324.725.827.830.823.633.234.836.732.5+5%+2%Net addition Global container tradegrew+11%in March.Growth is very differentacross trades and timing. Weexpect to see continued growthrest of year and more of a stop/gopattern due to tariffs.Current orderbook shows strongdemand for large vessels, with~7.8 million TEU (81% of total) innew build orders.Drewry has maintained its globalport handling growth forecast for2025 of 1.9%, which implies aslowdown over the rest of the year. DemandSource: Accenture Cargo, DHLGlobal Demand Development% change YoY in TEUDHL Global Forwarding| OFR Market Update | July 20252964M’24AMJ US tariff policy and situation in theMiddle East continue to driveuncertainty in global shippingdemand.Reciprocal tariffs on April 2reduced transpacific volumes by13.4% to 1.5m TEU, while NorthAmerica imports fell 11.5% year-on-year, per CTS data. April'svolumes likely reflect pre-tariffbookings, with May showing thefull impact of Trump's tariffs.Ongoing policy changescomplicate analysis of their effecton freight demand. OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAsiaIntraN. AmericaEuropeMiddle EastS. AmericaAfricaOceaniaEast MedEast MEDEuropeEuropeN. AmericaAsiaN. AmericaAsiaS. AmericaN. AmericaRegional Market Development–Major TradesMarket Development on Key Regional TradelanesSource: DHL, Accenture CargoRDemand > CapacityGDemand < CapacityDemand, Capacity balancedARGAGRRRRRRRRGRAGRRRRRRRRGGARAAGRRRRRRRGRRARRRRRGRRRGForecastDHL Global Forwarding| OFR Market Update | July 2025AAGRAAAAAAAAGAAGAAAGAGAAAGAAGAAAGAGAAAGARGGARAAGAAGGARGGARRARAAAG 6Capacity has remained abovedemand on Transpacific since mid-June. On Asia-Europe trade themarket remains robust, withcapacity aligned with demand. Onthe Asia to South America tradethe picture is mixed: The ECSAmarket is strong but facing acapacity shortage, while WCSAdemand remains low.Volatility is expected to persist astrade tensions and politicaluncertainties dampen businessoutlook.Scheduled ocean capacity onChina–South America trade lanegrew by +17M TEU from Jan to Jul2025 versus 2024 triggered byChina’s strategic investment inSouth American ports. AugSepARGGARARRARRAAAGGAAAARARRAAAGGAAAAAARRA Port CongestionSource: Linerlytica, Drewry, DHL; congestion measured in vessels at anchorage and vessels at portGlobal Port CongestionDHL Global Forwarding| OFR Market Update | July 2025Congestion at major North American ports, especially LA/LB, worsened, with 4% of capacity tied up. In San Pedro Bay, ships waiting for aberthing window increased from 33 to 37. Conversely, congestion at smaller ports