您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [环球富盛理财]:天然气业务增长强劲,方气成本具备下降潜力 - 发现报告

天然气业务增长强劲,方气成本具备下降潜力

2025-09-17 庄怀超 环球富盛理财 张博卿
报告封面

天然气业务增长强劲,方气成本具备下降潜力 Natural gasbusinessgrewstrongly&Costofcubicmetergas to decrease 最新动态 ➢天然气业务呈现强劲增长态势。2025H1,公司天然气业务呈现强劲增长态势。天然气产量达4.2亿立方米,销量达6.4亿立方米,分别同比增长116%和109%;天然气代输量完成4.68亿立方米,同比增长85%,代输业务规模持续扩大。天然气销售价格方面,气价同比持平略有提高。 ➢勘探开发板块取得多项关键进展。2025H1,公司在开发板块取得多项关键进展:完成31口煤层气水平井的完钻工作,并投产11口;2025H2新钻和已完钻井也将按计划陆续投产。深层煤层气的钻井周期同比进一步缩短,水平井完井长度也基本完成1500米设计长度,较2024年也有提高。2025H1,公司部署2口致密砂岩气水平井,其中1口已完钻并于于2025年7月投产,按设计完成了1200米水平段,砂岩钻遇率100%,初产12万方。2025H1,公司新增煤层气探明地质储量205亿立方米,累计备案煤层气探明地质储量达887亿立方米,含气面积300平方公里。公司仍在继续开展煤层气外扩勘探工作。 ➢永西连接线的输气能力有望提升。管输板块方面,2024年完成300万方/日输气能力的改扩建后,2025年预计输气量将突破9亿方,并有望超过10亿方。目前永西连接线已处于满负荷运行状态,日均输气量已达到300万方。中方2025年计划产量约50亿方,而永西连接线年输气能力为10亿方,未来上游生产规划完全能够支持该管线扩建需求。基于上游充足的气源保障,拟将输气能力从300万方/日提升至400万方/日,同时预留额外400万方的基础设施扩展空间,视气源情况添置压缩机即可。该项目资本性开支预计控制在1亿元以内。 动向解读 ➢公司未来方气成本仍具备下降潜力。开采成本的下降主要体现在两个方面,一是投资成本的下降;二是气量上升固定成本的摊薄。在投资成本方面,目前单口煤层气井投资成本在年初的基础上进一步下降,不含税大约在2900万左右,单井生命期累产(EUR)约5500万方,折算新井单方投资成本(折耗)约0.53元。按2024年油气资产折耗数据计算,2024年单方折耗约0.85元,随着新井的投产,这一数值将持续向0.53元/方的水平逐步趋近。同时,水网、电网等基础设施的投运,新工艺的实验与应用也会进一步降低投资成本。在气量提升方面,气量增长对生产运营成本摊薄效应更为明显,由于管理成本、销售费用等三费以及人工成本、场站设备等固定资产折旧此类生产成本并不随产气量同比例增长,因此气量快速提升可大幅摊薄单位生产运营成本。 风险提示 天然气勘探及开发风险、天然气产业政策风险等。 What’s New ➢The natural gas business is showing strong growth.In the first half of 2025, the company's natural gasbusiness continued to grow strongly. Natural gas production reached 420 million cubic metres and sales reached640 million cubic metres, marking year-on-year increases of 116% and 109% respectively. Thevolume of naturalgas transmitted reached 468 million cubic metres, marking an 85% year-on-year increase, and the scale of thetransmission business continues to expand. In terms of natural gas sales prices, prices remained unchangedyear-on-year with a slight increase. ➢Multiple key developments have been made in the exploration and development sector.In the first half of2025, the company made significant progress in this area: it completed the drilling of 31 coalbed methanehorizontal wells, putting 11 of them into operation. The new wells completed in the second half of 2025 will alsobe put into operation as planned. The drilling cycle for deep coalbed methane has shortened year-on-year, andhorizontal wells have basically reached the designed length of 1500 metres, which is an increase compared to2024. In 2025H1, the company drilled and put into operation one of two tight sandstone gas horizontal wells.The 1,200-metre horizontal section was completed as designed, with a 100% sandstone drilling encounter rateand initial production of 120,000 cubic metres. The newly discovered geological reserves of coalbed methanereached 20.5 billion cubic metres in the first half of 2025, bringing the total recorded reserves to 88.7 billioncubic metres across a 300-square-kilometre gas-bearing area. The company is continuing its exploration workto expand coalbed methane reserves. ➢The gas transmission capacity of the Yongxi connection line is expected to improve.In terms of pipelinetransportation, the renovation and expansion of the gas transmission capacity to 3 million cubic metres per dayis expected to be completed in 2024. It is then expected that the gas transmission volume will exceed 900 millioncubic metres by2025 andwill exceed 1 billion cubic metres thereafter. Currently, the Yongxi connection line isoperating at full capacity, with a daily gas transmission capacity of 3 million cubic metres. The Chinese sideplans to produce around 5 billion cubic metres in 2025, whereas the Yongxi connection line has an annual gastransmission capacity of 1 billion cubic metres. The future upstream production plan can fully support thepipeline's expansion needs. Assuming sufficient upstream gas supply, the gas transmission capacity will beincreased from 3 million to 4 million cubic metres per day, with an additional 4 million cubic metres ofinfrastructure expansion space reserved. Depending on the gas supply situation, additional compressors canbe added. The expected capital expenditure for this project is 100 million yuan. What’s Different ➢The company still has the potential to reduce its gas costs in future.The decrease in mining costs isreflected in two main areas: first, a decrease in investment costs, and second, a dilution of fixed costs due toan increase in gas volume. In terms of investment costs, the current cost of investing in a single coalbedmethane well has decreased further since the beginning of the year, reaching a total of approximately 29 millionyuan, excluding taxes. The cumulative production (EUR) of a single well over its lifetime is approximately 55million cubic metres, equivalent tothe depreciation of a new well's investment cost at around 0.53 yuan percubic metre. According to oil and gas asset depletion data for 2024, the depletion per cubic metre in 2024 isapproximately 0.85 yuan. As new wells come into production, this value will gradually approach 0.53 yuan percubic metre. At the same time, operating infrastructure such as water and power grids, as