中国经济：信贷疲软指向流动性宽松

Credit weakness points to liquidity easing Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’scredit growth notably eased in Aug as government financing softenedamid a higher base last year. Meanwhile, privatesector remained lethargic asloans to household and corporate sectors plunged.The liquidity conditionremained accommodative as the average DR007 rate edged down. The trendof shifting of household deposits into equities also continued as new savingsdeposits saw the lowest increase since 2014,while non-bank financial institutiondeposits remained elevated. However, sustainability of the market rally hingeson an economic fundamental recovery supported by stronger consumer demand Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Social financingflows slowed down as government financing eased.Outstanding social financing (SF)edged down to8.8% inAug from 9% in July(all in YoY terms unless otherwise specified),the first decline sinceOct 2024. The SF flowdropped 15.3% to RMB2.57trn,while beatingmarket expectation at RMB2.49trn.Government bondissuance remainedthe major drivershowingthe first YoY decline in 2025, while dropping19.1% to RMB1.37trn in Aug due to a higher base last year.RMB loanstothe real economyunder SFnotably dropped 40.2% to RMB623bn in Aug,indicatingcredit demand in the private sector remained subdued.Corporate bond issuancedropped 21.2% to RMB134bn in Aug compared New RMBloanscontinued to weaken.Growth of outstanding RMBloansedged down to6.8%inAugfrom6.9%,asthenewRMB loansnotablyslumped by 29.8%toRMB590bn in May,better than marketexpectations at RMB581bn.Credit demand of household sectorfurtherweakened with total loan flowsremarkablydropped84.2%. ST loan flowdipped 84.7% toRMB11bn in Aug, asconsumerswere still reluctant tospend. M&L termloanflowsalso decreased by 83.3% to RMB20bn in Aug,amid the softening property market. Corporate sector also dropped 34.4% Source: Wind, CMBIGM Equity markets remained buoyant,although their sustainabilityhinges on economic recovery and reflation prospect.Ample liquidityand the shift of household deposits into equities have fueled the recentstock rally. August data confirmed thetrend, with new household depositsrising by only RMB 0.1trn—the lowest since 2014—while non-bankfinancialinstitution deposits increased to RMB 1.2trn.However,sustainability hinges on an economic recovery supported by strongerconsumer demand and areflation in prices alongside improving corporate Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthatthe analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to thespecific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or tradedin the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serveas an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a whollyowned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. P