中国经济：流动性宽松下的信贷疲软

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | EconomicPerspectives China Economy Creditweakness with liquidity easing Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’s social financing flowbeat market expectations yet its growth remainedweak. Government bond issuance further slowed down, as a sign of moderatingfiscal support. Credit demand in real economy remained subdued for bothhousingand corporate sectors,reflecting weakening property market andlethargiccorporate capex.M1 growth continued to rebound as businessactivities improved. Looking forward, the central bank is likely to maintain ampleliquidity and support steady credit growth. We expect 10 bps LPR cut and 50bps RRR cut in 4Q25. Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Social financingflows beat market expectation.Outstanding socialfinancing (SF)growthedged down to8.7% inSep from 8.8%(all in YoYterms unless otherwise specified),astheSF flowdeclined by 6.1% toRMB3.53trn,which beatmarket expectationofRMB3.27trn.Governmentbondissuance further contracted by 22.6%to RMB1.19trn in Sepcompared to RMB1.37trn in Aug.The utilization of 83% of the RMB13.9trn full-year incremental debt quota indicates that fiscal support may retreatnotably in4Q25absent an additional quota expansion.Corporate bondissuanceextended its recovery to RMB10.5bn in Sep from-RMB192.6bnlast year, with YoY growth in3Qaccelerated to 131% from 53% in2Q.RMB loansto the real economyunder SFremained subdued but narrowedits decline from-40% in Aug to-19% to RMB1.61trn in Sep.M1 supplyaccelerated to 7.2% in Sep from 6% in Aug, the highest level since early2021, reflectingthe recovering business vitality. M2 declined from 8.8% inAug to 8.4% in Sep. NewRMBloansremained subdued.Growth of outstanding RMB loansedged down to6.6%in Sepfrom6.8%,marking another historical low.Theflow ofRMB loansdropped 18.9% to RMB1.29trnin Sep.Credit demandof household sector remained lethargic asloans to household contractedby22%.ST loans dropped 47.4%in Sep,while M&L-term loansrebounded by 8.7% despite its55.6%fall inquarterlygrowth, reflectingweakening demand in both consumption and property market. Loan tocorporate sectordropped 18.1% in Sep. The ST loan rebounded by 54%while the M&L-term loans declined by 5.2%,and bill financing sawnegative flow of-RMB402bn. Source: Wind,CMBIGM Liquidity condition will remain easing.The continued pick-up of M1growth indicates a gradual recovery of business activities. However, creditgrowth remained low as housing demand and business capexwerestillweak. Deflationary pressure lasted as real-term interest rates were stillhigh.Looking forward, the central bank is likely to maintain ample liquidityand support steady credit growth to defy deflation and boost the economyand housing market. We expect 10 bps LPR cut and 50 bps RRR cut in4Q25. Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwithrespect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be,directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after thedate of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stockwith potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 mont