2025年全球投资展望

A letter from Steve Peacher Consequently, questions remain as to whatdirection markets take from here. Will the aboveuncertainties translate into spread volatilityin bond markets? Could the evolving ratesenvironment affect market activity and volumesin public and private fixed income? Will we beseeing major shifts in other asset classes, suchas real estate and infrastructure? What will bethe impact on insurers and plan sponsors? Andoverall, where will asset managers be looking foropportunities in the months ahead? Our 2025 Global Investment Outlook comes at atime of great change, uncertainty and opportunityacross the world. In the previous year, we sawmajor shifts in the macroeconomic environment.In the U.S., Canada and other major markets, theconversation shifted from moderating inflationto buttressing economic growth. Central banksacross the world went into easing mode, from theU.S. Federal Reserve to the Bank of Canada andEuropean Central Bank. On a geopolitical front, the globe also grappledwith the grave consequences of armed conflict,several closely watched elections and theeconomic and human costs of significantweather- and climate-related disasters. At thesame time, 2024 brought investors robust returnsfrom a wide range of markets, including manyfixed income asset classes. That the events of 2025 could have varyingeffects on different investment types highlightsthe importance, in my view, of gathering thediverse views of our investment teams into oneplace. In the following pages, our specialists fromSLC Management, BGO, InfraRed and CrescentCapital will share their perspectives. I hope youwill find useful insights in our 2025 outlook, whichcan serve as a valuable tool for framing yourinvestment and business strategies, engagingstakeholders and gauging what investors may bemost concerned about in the new year. However, several sources of uncertainty remainprevalent as we head deeper into the new year.These include those of a political nature, with anincoming U.S. administration raising expectationsof both growth-friendly initiatives and the moresobering impact of tariff talk. The risks of ongoingglobal conflicts escalating even further remaintop of mind as well. And observers are watchingcentral banks closely, for signs of policymakerssettling into a neutral rate or adopting a morestimulative mindset. On behalf of SLC Management, I wish you all thebest in 2025. Regards, Executive Chair, SLC Management Macroeconomic outlook Dec Mullarkey Managing Director, Investment Strategyand Asset Allocation Market expectations caught between potentialbusiness-friendly initiatives and trade policychallenges China has struggled to find its groove over the last several years.A housing slump that has lasted four years has resulted in a largenumber of unfinished properties and bad loans. Credit growthhas slowed, and weak consumer confidence has sapped activity.Policymakers, worried about deflation, have been cutting rates. Themarket keeps waiting for some large bouts of fiscal stimulus whilethe government instead rolls out targeted programs. Faced with thethreat of uncertain tariffs the government seems to be holding offuntil it can assess the full impact. What are economists and markets expecting? Unknowns heading into 2025 While the U.S. political backdrop certainly matters, the businesscycle is generally more critical in the longer run. And right now,employment is expected to remain strong. This in turn should fortifyconsumer spending. Productivity is up, while business and residentialspending is expected to be solid. Inflation continues to decelerate,and absent some trade or policy shock the U.S. Federal Reserveshould continue to normalize rates. The Bloomberg consensusestimate for U.S. GDP growth is for above 2% this year. U.S. policy uncertainty is running high. A new president, whose partycontrols both branches of Congress, is championing an ambitiousagenda. It contains the prospects of stimulus from tax cuts andlighter regulation. But it also comes with potential frictions andoffsets from tariffs and an immigration crackdown. That mix is hard to handicap, as some of the details remain vague,but markets are betting that growth will be prioritized and the neteffect will be market friendly. The prospects of tax breaks and lighterregulation have already ignited a rally in equities. The potential forincreased mergers and acquisitions has also led to an improvedoutlook for certain companies and sectors. Any tariff reaction from China will likely be some mix of retaliation,currency adjustments, rate cuts and fiscal support. Fortunately,the country has the fiscal and monetary capacity to help bufferits economy from some trade disruption. Markets still expect thegovernment to stimulate and deliver GDP growth levels, albeit belowtarget, of 4.5%. Across Canada, inflation is quickly receding, and rates are dropping.After two years of subpar growth, Canada is rebounding. The Bankof Canada, after a rapid