美联储观察：9月降息仍存悬念，但50个基点绝无可能

FedWatcher:Jury still out on Septemberrate cut, but 50bpsdefinitely out Amy YangEconomist(+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.com Matthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett RyanSenior Economist(+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com Justin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com Avik ChattopadhyayResearch Associateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com August 18, 2025 DB Fed Watcher:Jury still out on September rate cut, but 50bpsdefinitely out Summary:July job and inflation reports appeared not to resolve the debate for a Sept. 25bps rate cut. Sofarno officials endorsinga50bpsrate cutDB View: Next rate cutinDec. 2 more 25bp cuts in Q1 2026 reaching a neutral level of 3.625%. Risks are skewed to earlier cuts as soon as September Identifying the 2025 dot plot divide DB ID of the 2025 dots in the June SEP Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fedpresident. The green dots represent regional voters in2025and red dots represent regional voters in 2026. All other officials arerepresented by the gray dots. *Former Governor Kugler’s dot is greyed out as her resignation was effective August 7. **FormerPhiladelphia Fed President Harker’s dot is greyed out as Anna Paulson replaced him in July 2025. Chart highlights Recentpublications: USEconomicNotes:Whatyouneedtoknowfortheweekahead–Aug-17-2025 Measures of broad-based inflation show someevidence of stalling progress Markets priced easing in Sept with 85%probability, and about 2 cuts by December FedNotes:OnPowellatJacksonHole:DidtheframeworkdelayFed'sinflationresponse?–Aug-15-2025 USEconomicNotes:JulyCPIrecap:NotenoughsizzletoshakeSeptembercutspeculation–Aug-12-2025 Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics, DeutscheBank FedNotes:Succession:WhatMiranmeansfortheracetoreplacePowell–Aug-11-2025 Trade policyuncertainty recededfrom April butremained extremely elevated FCI-G has eased substantially back to thelevel seen in 2022 USEconomicPerspectives:Trendinflationonhold–Aug-08-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:ThemissededucationoftheJulyemploymentreport–Aug-06-2025 USEconomicChartbook:Monthlycharts:WilldéjàvuforthelabormarketbringearlierFedeasing?–Aug-05-2025 Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has notand will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Knowledge Partners, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliat