您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美银证券]:资金流向报告:我的群体是我的债券 - 发现报告

资金流向报告:我的群体是我的债券

2025-08-21 - 美银证券 朝新G
报告封面

My herd is my bond Scores on the Doors: gold 26.3%, bitcoin 20.0%, stocks 13.9%, IG bonds 8.2%, HYbonds 8.0%, govt bonds 6.3%, cash 2.7%, commods 2.6%, US$ -9.1%, oil -11.4% YTD. 21 August 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal The Biggest Picture: record $97bn inflow to global bond funds past 4 weeks, YTDbonds annualizing record $700bn inflow, led by inflows to IG bonds (Charts 2 & 3). Coming Soon: Aug 27thNVDA, 29thPCE, Sep 5thpayrolls, 10thPPI, 11thCPI, 17thFOMC. Flows: inflows to bonds $23.0bn, stocks $3.0bn, cash $1.3bn, gold $0.1bn, outflowsfrom crypto $0.7bn. Flows to Know: IG bond inflow past 4 weeks biggest since Jul'20 ($57.4bn), Europeequity outflow biggest in 4 months ($2.3bn), German equity outflow biggest in 3 months($0.4bn), 18thweek of UK equity outflows ($1.3bn, biggest in 3 months). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com BofA Private Clients: $4.1tn AUM…64.1% stocks, 18.1% bonds, 10.7% in cash; GWIMbuying industrials, HY, bank loan ETFs past 4 weeks, selling energy, healthcare, staples. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: dips to 6.0 from 6.1 on DM equity outflows, bad globalequity breadth, and bearish hedge fund positions, offset by low FMS cash level. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Global government & corporate bond flows by year ($bn) Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience inrelevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 8 to 10.12868725 Timestamp: 21 August 2025 07:49PM EDT Asset Class Flows (Table 1) Equities:$3.0bninflow ($10.4bn inflow to ETFs, $7.3bn outflowfrommutual funds) Bonds:inflows past 17 weeks ($23.0bn) Precious metals:inflows past 2 weeks ($0.1bn) Fixed Income Flows (Chart4) IG Bondinflows past 17 weeks ($12.7bn) HY Bondinflows past 17 weeks ($0.4bn) EM Debtinflows past 18 weeks ($3.2bn) Munisinflows past 11 weeks ($2.9bn) Govt/Tsyinflows past 7 weeks ($2.2bn) TIPSinflows past 6 weeks ($0.1bn) Bank loaninflows past 10 weeks ($0.7bn) Equity Flows (Table2)US: outflows resume ($2.5bn) Japan:outflows past 6 weeks ($2.2bn) Europe: outflows resume ($2.3bn) EM: inflows resume ($1.4bn) By style: inflowsUS large cap($0.8bn), outflowsUS value($0.5bn),US growth($1.5bn),US small cap($1.6bn). By sector: Inflowstech($0.5bn),healthcare($0.4bn),consumer($0.2bn),utilities($0.2bn),energy($20mn), outflowsfinancials($0.2bn),telcos($0.3bn),real estate($0.4bn),materials($0.6bn). BofA private client flows & allocations BofA private clients 4-week ETFflows as % of AUM Source:BofA Global investment Strategy Source:BofA Global investment Strategy BofA private client debt holdings as % of AUM Source:BofA Global investment Strategy Source:BofA Global investment Strategy BofA private client ETF holdings as % ofAUM Source:BofA Global investment Strategy Source:BofA Global investment Strategy The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns Ranked cross asset returns by year since 2000 BofA Rules & Tools Table3: BofA Global Investment Strategy Proprietary IndicatorsCurrent reading of all BofA Global Investment Strategy Proprietary Indicators Proprietary Indicators Contrarian BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)Sell when investor sentiment > 8.0; Buy when investor sentiment < 2.0 BofA Global FMS Cash Indicator Buy when cash at or above 5.0%; Sell when cash at or below 4.0% BofA Global Breadth Rule BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B) Our BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 6.0 signal which is Neutral. Table4:BofA B&B Indicator Chart12: BofA