在动荡市场中构建韧性投资组合：2025年第三季度投资展望

Investment OutlookQ3 2025 Contents 25 04 Currencies and Commodities Client Letter 27 05 Key Topics and Investment Priorities Hedge Funds 29 10 Top Five Trends and High Conviction Themes Private Markets 10Asia in the New World Order12Disruptive Technologies14Climate Action16Evolving Society18Building Resilience Amid Tariff Headwinds 31 Real Estate 32 20 Contributors Equities 33 22 Disclaimers Fixed Income Investment Outlook Investment Outlook Q3 2025.Issued on 22 May 2025Charting Through TurbulenceWith Resilient Portfolios Tap into Asia’s DomesticResilience and Structural Growth Q3 2025.Issued on 22 May 2025 Welcome Among all the political noise, the marketalmost seems to have forgotten about itsprevious obsession: Artificial Intelligence.But we keep getting loads of examplesof AI revolutionising business models ormaking a real difference in companies’efficiency. Therefore, not only do we findattractive opportunities in the adopters ofAI technology around the world, but alsoin AI enablers like networks, software,datacentres and associated services. due to all the policy changes can leadbusinesses to hold back on investmentdecisions. But ultimately, local andforeign businesses want to bring supplychains closer to the US. More stablepolicies after the first trade tariff shockfaded, potential tax cuts and continuedAI-led innovation are other reasons toexpect investment to gradually pick up. Dear client, Markets have had a roller-coaster ridesince late last year, swinging frompost-election optimism to tariff-relatedshock and pessimism, and then backto hope as the US gave all countriesa 90-day reprieve on reciprocal tradetariffs. The sheer volume of US policyannouncements and many U-turns makeit difficult for investors to take strongviews or to quantify the impact ongrowth and earnings. So, while we expect to see lower USgrowth this year, the economy shouldnot slide into recession or stagflation.Earnings growth will probably only be inthe single digits, but expectations havealready been reduced, and valuations arereasonable, around historical averages.To boost return potential, we think equityinvestors will benefit from adopting anactive and selective approach. Our four priorities going into Q3 2025are as follows: This policy uncertainty will remainwith us, as the US administration isnot just changing tariffs, but aims toaccelerate deregulation and shift itsglobal economic power, challengingmany norms while doing so. Investorsshould therefore expect to continue to besurprised. They can also count on furthertwo-way volatility ahead as they watchevery headline and scratch their heads. 1.Rebuild equity exposure withmore diversified regional andsector positioning– because manyof the best thematic opportunitiesspan across regions and sectors.Broad exposure helps widen theopportunity set and screen forattractive assets. Central banks remain on an easing path.The Fed of course has the hardest task,as it weighs the effects of tariffs ongrowth and inflation. But we still expectthree US rate cuts this year. Other centralbanks are less worried about inflation,as only imports from the US are subjectto the new tariffs. So, we expect to seefurther rate cuts in Europe, Asia andother Emerging Markets. 2.Capture expanding globalopportunities in AI adoption andmonetisation– because manyAI-related stocks have sold-off, butwe think AI-led innovation continuesto revolutionise areas such as theEvolving AI Ecosystem and Robots& Automation. The best approach in this environmentis to develop a core scenario for thekey variables that could impact marketperformance, but, above all, to put theemphasis on portfolio resilience amid theuncertainty. Trade tariffs, of course, will remain animportant topic, but the 90-day reprievereduces the headline risk for marketsuntil the 90 days run out. The quickUS-China negotiations and the policyturnaround when Treasury marketsbecame too volatile give investors thesense that the US policymakers arelistening to markets and businesses.And the US tax bill deal should reducethe uncertainty on the fiscal side. So,while the headlines will continue toimpact market sentiment, they are morebalanced than investors feared just a fewweeks ago. Europe is determined to spend more ondefence, as its peace dividend is over.The new German government has somemore fiscal room, and other nations cantap into EU funds. Much will now dependon how ambitious Europe’s initiatives willbe to innovate, deregulate and invest indigitalisation and energy security. 3.Mitigate currency and portfoliorisks with alternatives, multi-assetand volatility strategies– becausethe uncertainty around politicalheadlines and their uncertain impacton economic and earnings growthcreates volatility as well asmedium-term opportunities. China’s 90-day tariff reprieve isgood news, but additional targetedstimulus may still be needed tosupport domestic demand. China’smanufacturing will continue to benefitfrom cluste