2025年年中投资展望

2025 Mid YearInvestment Outlook The value of investments and any income from them can go down as wellas up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.Forillustrative purposes only, this document is a global view of the recent evolution ofthe economic conditions. This is marketing support which constitutes neitherinvestment advice nor a recommendation to buy or sell investment. Thiscommentary is not the result of investment research and is not subject to legalrequirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and isnot subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. Contents Foreword03Macro outlook and market implications05Top of mind09Deep divesAlternatives beyond US dollar denominated bonds13A turning tide in global equity leadership17Rewriting the equity playbook21 This commentary provides a high-level overview of the recent economic environment and is for information purposes only. It is amarketingcommunication and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to any reader of this content to buy or sell investments nor should it beregarded as investment research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investmentresearch and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. The views expressed within this reportwere held at the time ofpreparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way.HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. Foreword from our Chief Investment Officer These ‘new rules’ also call for agility and selectivity. In aworld where global leadership is diffuse and capital flowsare shifting, investors must embrace greater geographicand strategic diversification. This includes opportunitiesoutside the US, where policy flexibility, valuation gaps,and supportive fiscal trends offer stronger forward-looking return profiles. To help you navigate this fast-evolving landscape, thepages ahead explore these themes in more detail throughour macro-economic and market scenarios. We alsoexamine the implications of the US’s diminishingdominance, its impact on European and Asian markets,and address some of your most pressing questions.I trust this report will provide valuable insights to guideyour investment journey for the remainder of 2025. Welcome to our Mid-Year 2025 GlobalInvestment Outlook: ‘New Rules’.This year’s theme reflects that the macroenvironment is changing–structurally, notcyclically–and with it, the rules ofinvesting. European and Asian markets, once overlooked, arebenefitting from shifting capital flows and expandingpolicy puts, especially in China, India, and parts ofASEAN. Meanwhile, emerging market bonds and localcurrency exposures stand to benefit from improved realyield profiles and more proactive monetary stances. The post Global Financial Crisis world, shaped by USpolicy dominance, synchronised globalisation, andpredictable inflation dynamics, is giving way to somethingfar more fragmented. We are entering an era defined byheightened policy uncertainty, elevated inflation volatility,and the geopolitical realignment of trade, capital, andgrowth. As the US grapples with growing fiscal fragilityand waning policy credibility, its role as the anchor ofglobal returns and safe-haven destination capital is beingincreasingly questioned. “In a world where oldcertainties are breakingdown, investors have toaccept that uncertainty isa feature of the system,not a bug.” Alternatives will also play a central role in this newregime. Whether through private credit, macro hedgefunds, or gold, they offer the diversification that traditionalasset classes now struggle to provide. This backdrop demands a reassessment of oldassumptions. The breakdown of the 60/40 portfolioparadigm, the rise of supply-side shocks, and astructurally weaker US dollar are not anomalies–they arefeatures of a more unstable, multipolar world. The returnof tariffs, the blurring of central bank mandates, andelevated correlations across asset classes require a newinvestment approach–one that is more granular, moreglobal, and more adaptive. Ultimately, investors must recognise that uncertainty is nolonger a transient feature of markets–it is a permanentone. Leadership is no longer concentrated in onegeography or asset class. Hence, we believe thatadaptability, flexibility, and global breadth in portfolioconstruction will be the keys to success in the months tocome. XavierBaratonChief Investment Officer Macro outlook and market implications Macro outlook and market implications Increasingly active fiscal policy and higher debt anddeficits are also capturing investor attention. The bondvigilantes are back in town. Amid a Fed that is hamstrungby higher inflation, longer-dated bond yields are likely toremain s