美洲科技半导体：交易"人工智能之秋" - 我们对年底战术性股票表现的看法

Bottomline-WeprovideourthoughtsonNvidia’stacticalstockperformanceheadingintoyearend,aheadofthecompany’searningsreportonAugust27.Tobeclear,weremainverybullishonNvidia’sprospectsfordrivingoutsizedgrowthin2026,basedonpositivehyperscalerCapExcommentaryandtheprospectsfornon-traditionalcustomerdemandwesee.However,basedonouranalysisofhistoricaltradingpatterns,webelieveitmaybedifficultforthestocktooutperforminthenextfewmonthsgivenapotentiallackofharddatatocatalyzeupwardestimaterevisions.Inthenearterm,weseethreemainfactorsthatarelikelytodrivethestockbetweennowandformal2026CapExguidancefromhyperscalersinJanuary:(1)quantitativecommentary(ifany)onhyperscalerCapExinOctober;(2)companycommentaryonthetimingoftheRubinintroduction;(3)additionalclarityontheChinabusiness.Intheabsenceofnumericaldatapointssupportiveoffurtherupwardrevisions,wethinkuncertaintyonthedirectionoftravelin2027couldweighonthestock,similartothehistoricaltradingpatternsseeninlate2024andlate2023.WealsoprovidebrieftacticalupdatesonAVGO,AMD,andMRVL. JamesSchneider,Ph.D.+1(212)357-2929|jim.schneider@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC AnmolMakkar+1(212)357-1366|anmol.makkar@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC ChrisKress+1(212)902-6696|chris.kress@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC DavidBalaban+1(212)357-6369|david.balaban@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC LuyaYou+1(212)902-5297|luya.you@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC Thinkingaboutstockpriceperformancein2025thusfar ThepriceactioninNvidia’sstockin1H25divergedfrompriorbehaviorin1H24and1H23asconcernsaroundDeepSeekandthemacroenvironmenttrumpedchangestohyperscalerCapExestimatesandcompanyfinancialperformance.However,startinginApril2025thestockhasbeguntosignificantlyoutperformagaininresponsetomultiplepositiverevisionstohyperscalerCapExestimates,aswellasabatingconcernstiedtothemacroenvironmentandspecificallythe“efficiencythreat”posedbyDeepSeek. Source:FactSet KeyfactorsweexpecttodrivestockpriceperformancethroughJanuary2026 WeexpectthreeprimaryfactorstodrivestockpriceperformancethroughJanuary2026,whenweexpecthyperscalerstoprovideformalquantitativeguidancefor2026CapEx: PotentialupsidetoStreethyperscalerCapExestimatesin3Q(September)nDatapointsandcommentaryonthetimingoftheRubinproductintroductionnCommentaryonNvidia’sChinabusinessandUSexportcontrolsn Intheabsenceofanysubstantialupdatesonthesefronts,weexpectuncertaintyonthe directionoftravelintheoutyear(i.e.,2027)todrivethestockthroughtheendof2025,similartothebehaviorwewitnessedin2H24and2H23. Keytakeawaysfromourhistoricalanalysis OuranalysissuggeststhatNVDAsharestypicallyoutperformonconcreteupwardrevisionstohyperscalerCapEx,whichtendstooccurinthefirsthalfoftheyearwhenthesecompaniesgenerallyprovideannualCapExguidance.AlthoughthesecompaniesdomakequalitativecommentsonthedirectionofCapExinsubsequentquarters,intheabsenceofanyquantitativeupsidetoguidance,otherfactors(apartfromNvidia’sownfundamentals)exertmoreinfluenceontacticalstockpriceperformance. META Google Alookbackat2023and2024 2024:TheAItradebroadened,withupsidetohyperscalerCapEx.“Peakconcerns”andcompetitiveworriescreptintothepicturein2H 2024sawabroadeningoftheAItradebeyondNvidia,andotherAIinfrastructurelayersuppliersstartedtobeperceivedassignificantAIbeneficiaries(AVGO,AMDandMRVLinourcoverage).Wesawstockpricestrengthin1H24forNVDA(+149%in1H24)ashyperscalersprovidednumericalguidancefor2024inJanuarywhichwasaboveStreet expectations,drivingupsidetoestimates.However,asweprogressedthrough2024,“peakconcerns”cameintofocusrelativeto2025CapEx,andNvidia’sstockbecamerangebound(+12%returnin2H24).Otheridiosyncraticfactorsalsocameintoplay,includingperceivedcompetitionfromASICsaswellastimingconcernssurroundingNvidia’sforthcomingBlackwellproductwhichcontributedtorelativelyweakerstockperformancein2H24. Source:FactSet Source:FactSet Source:FactSet 2023:TheAInarrativeemerged,promptingamajorwalletshareshifttowardacceleratedcomputing,withnocompetingalternativestoNvidia NvidiawasconsideredoneofveryfewAIbeneficiariesfollowingtheemergenceofChatGPT,andupsidetofundamentalswasdrivenbyawalletshareshiftfromgeneral-purposeCPUtoacceleratedcomputingandGPU,asopposedtorevisionstohyperscaleCapExestimates.However,followingasharpre-ratinginthestockdrivenbyfundamentalsin1H(+189%in1H’23),Nvidia’sstockmultiplecompressedin2H23 (+17%in2H’23)despitestrongfundamentalsasinvestorsquestionedthesustainabilityofthisspendingrampinthemediumterm. Source:FactSet ThoughtsonotherAIstocksinourcoverage BelowwealsosummarizeourthoughtsonhowweexpecttheotherAI-exposedstockstotradeinthecomingmonths: Broadcom:WeexpectsimilartradingdynamicsforBroadcomin2H25relativetoNvidia, givenmanagementhasalreadyprovidedFY26AIrevenueguidanceaswellasFY27AISAMfigures-andwethinkthesearelargelycontemplatedbyStreetestimates.Aswementionedinourpreview,incrementaldatapointsonupsidefromnewXPUcustomersaswellasAINetworkingarelikelytobethefactorsdrivingstockoutperformance,inourview. AMD:WebelievepotentialupsidetoDatacenterGPUestimatesfor2026andnear-termstrengthinPCsandServerCPUsarelargelypricedintothestockatcurrentlevels.