气候脆弱性和就业机会：来自马达加斯加塔那那利佛的证据（英）

Climate Vulnerability and Job Accessibility Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar Atsushi Iimi Policy Research Working Paper11180 Abstract Many developing cities are facing rapid population growthand extreme climate events. This paper examines the linkbetween job accessibility and climate vulnerability, usingdata from Antananarivo, Madagascar, which frequentlyexperiences flooding. As in other countries, the analysisfinds that men’s commutes are longer than women’s, whotend to walk to work or use public transport. Even aftercontrolling for observables and the potential endogeneitybias associated with commute time, the findings show that climate vulnerability negatively impacts wages, as peopleavoid commuting long to work due to anticipated poten-tial climate risks. Building climate resilience into urbantransport is therefore essential. As predicted by theory, theevidence also shows that the value of commuting is positive,and walking is disadvantageous. Motorized commutingyields higher returns, which could lead to overuse of privatecars and taxis, posing decarbonization challenges. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Climate Vulnerability and Job Accessibility:Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar Atsushi Iimi¶ Eastern and Southern AfricaTransport Global PracticeWorld Bank JEL classification: C21, C26, O18, R41 I.INTRODUCTION 1.Urban transportation is essential for connecting residences, workplaces, and socioeconomicservices. A substantial body of literature examines how weather conditions, such as temperature(e.g., Miao et al., 2019), rainfall (e.g., Guo et al., 2007; Angel et al., 2014), and snowfall (e.g.,Datla and Sharma, 2010; Yue et al., 2020) impact individuals’ travel behaviors and decisions.1Inrecent years, many cities have faced significant disruptions due to extreme climate events (e.g.,Chester and Allenby, 2019; Markolf et al., 2019; Ji et al., 2022). For instance, Hurricane Harveyin 2017 produced record-breaking rainfall in the United States, causing an estimated US$125billion in damages in Texas, including Greater Houston and the Beaumont-Port Arthurmetropolitan area (NOAA, 2018). Similarly, Typhoon Mangkhut in Shenzhen, China, reducedurban mobility by 39 percent in 2018 (Chen et al., 2020). Severe fog and snow decreased trafficby approximately 40 percent in Shandong Province (Yue et al., 2020). 2.This paper extends existing literature by analyzing the impacts of climate vulnerability ontransport accessibility and mobility and examining how extreme weather events affectemployment decisions. Conceptually, job accessibility is influenced by weather conditions.However, there are few studies that directly explore the relationship between transportation-related climate vulnerability and labor market outcomes, such as wages. 3.The nexus between climate vulnerability and job accessibility is a complex intersectionbetween transport economics and labor economics. In transport economics, the relationshipbetween weather conditions and transport demand is extensively discussed from trafficmanagement and transport safety perspectives. Free-flow speeds decrease by about 5 to 10 km/hon wet or snow-covered pavement surfaces (e.g., Angel et al., 2014). Vehicle speed declines withfloodwater depth, falling below 10 km/h when water depth exceeds 20 cm (Pregnolato et al.,2017; Evans et al., 2024). Additionally, weather conditions impact modal selection, a traditionaltopic of interest in transport economics (e.g., McFadden, 1974a, 1974b; Hensher, 1986; Hensherand Greene, 2002). For example, extreme weather conditions, such as low temperatures andheavy rain, reduce public bus ridership by several percentage points (Miao et al., 2019). In Chicago, an additional inch of daily rainfall decreases public bus ridership by about 5 percent(Guo et al., 2007). 4.In labor economics, job accessibility is a crucial determinant of labor force participation.Employment decisions are influenced by various factors, such as human capital, the spatialdistribution of jobs, and offered wages (e.g., Stigler, 1962; White, 1986; 1988; Ommeren, 1998).Under an augmented job search framework, wages and commute time (or costs) are jointlydetermined (Rupert et al., 2009). Therefore, if weather conditions affect job accessibility, theyalso influence labor market outcomes. Empirical studies suppo