索马里加入东非共同体的经济评估（英）2025

©2025The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do notnecessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and doesnot assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the useof or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations,links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bankconcerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of worksauthored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of theirworks. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunitiesof The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank.2025.Economic Assessment of Somalia’s Accession to the EastAfrican Community.© World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, TheWorld Bank,1818 H Street NW,Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo:©Mustafa Saeed. Used with the permission ofMustafa Saeed. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design:Elena-Maria Ilieva Contents List of Abbreviations and Acronyms...........................................................................................4Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................5Executive Summary.....................................................................................................................61.Opportunities and Challenges of Somalia’s Integration into the EAC.....................................131.1Opportunities for Somalia in EAC Membership............................................................131.1.1Improved regulatory and institutional environment........................................................131.1.2Trade expansion and market access...........................................................................161.1.3Economic diversification...........................................................................................181.1.4Access to regional support programs..........................................................................191.2Challenges for Somalia in EAC Membership................................................................201.2.1Institutional capacity and governance.........................................................................211.2.2Compliance.............................................................................................................221.2.3Infrastructure gaps...................................................................................................232.Somalia’s Road to EAC Integration......................................................................................242.1A Comparative Perspective of Somalia’s Economic Performance.................................242.2TradePerformance.....................................................................................................272.3Overview of Somalia’s Domestic Revenue Generation.................................................343.Estimating the Impact of EAC Common External Tariff on Imports........................................373.1Impact on Overall Imports..........................................................................................373.2Impact on Imports from the EAC.................................................................................373.3Impact on Imports from Third Countries......................................................................383.4Product-Level Effects.................................................................................................403.5Reform Options..........................................................................................................424.Fiscal Impacts of the EAC’s CET..........................................................................................434.1Overall Effects of the EAC’s CET on Somalia’s Revenue...............................................434.2Sec