索马里经济最新情况：促进国内收入动员——加强服务提供，加强社会契约（英）2025

TO ENHANCE SERVICE DELIVERYAND STRENGTHENTHE SOCIAL CONTRACT BoostingDomestic RevenueMobilization TO ENHANCE SERVICE DELIVERYAND STRENGTHENTHE SOCIAL CONTRACT © 2025 International Bank for Reconstructionand Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with externalcontributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, itsBoard of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or cur-rency of the data included in this work and does not assume respon-sibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information,methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in thiswork do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank con-cerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or accept-ance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to bea limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of TheWorld Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The WorldBank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be re-produced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long asfull attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, shouldbe addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design, interior design and typesetting:Piotr Ruczynski,London, United Kingdom, prucz.co.uk Cover and chapter photos:World Bank, Dominic Chavez/World Bank Contents vForewordviHordhacviiAcknowledgementsixAbbreviations and Acronyms 1Executive Summary7Soo koobida Hawl fulinta 15PART ISomalia Macroeconomic Summary 161Global and Regional Developments172Recent Economic Developments in Somalia283Medium-Term Outlook and Risks334Conclusion and Summary Policy Options Domestic Revenue Mobilizationfor Enhanced Service Delivery and Social Contract 385Somalia’s State Affordability and Service Delivery Capacity446Opportunities and Constraints in Domestic Resource Mobilization2025–2030547Policy Recommendations 56References Boxes 39BOX 5.1Access to services among the poor47BOX 6.1Country practices. Increases in tax reve-nues following tax policy and administration reforms 52BOX 6.2Al-Shabab taxation—the main elementsand performance features Figures 18FIGURE 2.1Somali economic growth remains toomodest to make much of an improvement in livingstandards18FIGURE 2.2Demand growth drivers: contribution toGDP growth19FIGURE 2.3Agriculture production continues torecover from the 2020–23 severe drought19FIGURE 2.4Inflationary pressures eased, driven bydecline in food prices20FIGURE 2.5Poverty reduction is projected tostagnates, hindered by food insecurity caused byunfavorable weather and reduced humanitarian aid.21FIGURE 2.6Somali banking sector continues to growbut at a slower pace22FIGURE 2.7Recovery in international trade contin-ued in 2024 supporting the weak external sector22FIGURE 2.8Workers remittances have remainedrelatively resilient to recurrent shocks23FIGURE 2.9Percentage growth in 2024 actual reve-nues, compared to 2023 outturns and 2024 budget24FIGURE 2.10FGS spending remains unchangeddominated by wage bill, security, and administrativecosts26FIGURE 2.11The 2025 budget is primarily supportedby externally funded projects. 26FIGURE 2.12Total expenditure increased due toheightened capital investments and operationalcosts29FIGURE 3.1Real GDP growth38FIGURE 5.1Snapshot of service delivery levels in2023–202439FIGURE B5.1.1Access to improved water and sanita-tion39FIGURE B5.1.2Access to education and health care41FIGURE 5.2Medium-term scenarios with estimatedFGS resource envelope42FIGURE 5.3High-level illustrational scenarios withFGS estimated resource envelope and integratedlevel of domestic revenues42FIGURE 5.4High-level illustrational scenarios withFGS plus FMS estimated resource envelope, andoff-budget ODA43FIGURE 5.5Simplified view of actors and functions45FIGURE 6.1Revenues by source and FGS/FMS,2019–2022 average51FIGURE 6.2Number of authorities to which taxes arepaid51FIGURE 6.3Authority to which tax is paid53FIGURE 6.4How to make complying with tax obliga-tions easier Tables 27TABLE 2.3Public and publicly guaranteed debt anddebt service, 2022–202540TABLE 5.1High-level illustrative coverage scenarios44TABLE 6.1Revenue profile by FGS and FMS, 2023 24TABLE 2.1Government fiscal operations,2019–202425TABLE 2.2Fiscal operations at subnational govern-ments in 2024 Foreword So