2025年第二季度全球主要城市指数

The Prime Global Cities Index (PGCI) is a valuation-based index,tracking the movement of prime residential prices across 46 citiesworldwide using data from our global research network. The indextracks nominal prices in local currency 2025 Q2 knightfrank.com/research Global prime prices cools amidrate cut delays 2.3% Average annual house price growth across our 46-citybasket slowed to 2.3% in the second quarter of 2025,down from 3.5% in Q1. The deceleration reflects growinguncertainty over the timing and scale of interest rate cutsin key global economies, pulling the growth rate furtherbelow the long-term average of 5.2%. average annual growth in prices across our46-city basket 75% proportion of our cities that saw positivehouse price growth over the past 12 months Seoul previous quarters. Seoul remains thestrongest performer, with its annualgrowth rising to 25.2%. Tokyo saw anotable rise with 16.3% annual growthin Q2, up from 15.5% in Q1. A COOLING MARKET Average global prime residentialprices rose by 2.3% in the 12 monthsto June 2025, confirming a slowing inthe market's recovery, which had beenbuilding since the second quarter of2023. This quarter’s result marks theweakest annual growth since Q4 2023and indicates that the momentum seenat the start of the year has softened.While rates have come down in recentquarters, resilience in prices is beingtested by borrowing costs which sit wellabove levels seen in the recent past,which continues to weigh on buyersentiment and affordability. the city with the fastest rate of annualgrowth in Q2. Tokyoa notable growth market, with five-yeargrowth of 120% Over the past five years to Q2 2025,real estate price growth has surged mostdramatically in Asia and the MiddleEast, with Tokyo (120%), Dubai (107%),and Seoul (81%) leading. US gatewaymarkets – Miami, Los Angeles, and SanFrancisco – also posted robust gains,reflecting strong demand and limitedsupply. Emerging hotspots like Manilaand Christchurch highlight increasinginvestor appetite in secondary cities.The Gold Coast and Shanghai round outa diverse, global growth landscape. Prime price change PGCI, annual % change On a quarterly basis, the overall indexsaw a modest fall of 0.1%. A significantslowdown from the 1.3% uplift recordedin the first quarter of the year. Theproportion of cities registering annualprice growth has also fallen marginally,from 78% last quarter to 75%, indicatingthat more markets are now experiencingweaker conditions. LOOKING AHEAD The outlook for prime property marketsremains tightly linked to the future ofmonetary policy. While inflation hasbeen brought under control in severalmajor economies, central banks areproceeding with caution. The delayin substantive interest rate cuts hasprolonged a period of higher financingcosts, acting as a brake on price growth. CITY PERFORMANCE Asian cities continue to lead therankings, but with less vigour than in A more complex economic outlook,particularly in the US, has addedanother layer of uncertainty. Strongunderlying fundamentals, such aswealth creation and supply constraintsin prime districts, will support prices,but a significant acceleration in themarket is unlikely in the second half ofthe year. Ranked by annual % change Leading markets Strongest 10 markets for price growth,five years to Q2 2025 “Prime markets are taking acollective breath. The recovery wehave seen over recent quarters wasaided by the expectation of lowerborrowing costs, and with thattimeline now pushed out, a coolingin price growth is inevitable. We'reseeing a more fragmented market,with some European cities showingsurprising strength while formerhigh-flyers in Asia begin to level off.” Liam Bailey, Knight Frank’s global head of research We like questions, if you’ve got one about ourresearch, or would like some property advice,we would love to hear from you. Research enquiriesLiam Bailey+44 7919 303 148liam.bailey@knightfrank.com Press enquiriesEmma Cotton+44 7974 521 802emma.cotton@knightfrank.com