固定收益部市场日报

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025 Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk We hope you found our commentaries and ideashelpful. We seek toelevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highlyappreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of “TheAsset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025”.Thank you for yoursupport! Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk SHIKON tightened 5bps this morning. HK banks T2s tightened 3bps.Koreaspace was unchanged to 2bps tighter. MIZUHO/SUMIBK floaters were 2-3bps tighter. MTRC 5 5/8 and MTRC 4 7/8 Perps rose 0.4pt. INDYIJ:1H25 profits eroded on lower ASP and softened market demand.Maintain buy on INDYIJ 8.75 05/07/29, which was 1.4pt higher post resultsannouncement. See below. YujingZhang张钰婧(852)39000830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Liquidity condition to remain easing.CMBI expectsUSD/RMB may drop again in 4Q25 when US inflation might decline againand China might launch additional fiscal stimulus towards consumption;USD/RMB to reach 7.10 at end-2025. See below for comments from CMBIeconomic research. Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,Asia IG opened firmly after the release of US CPI data, and themarket almost fully priced in the expected 25bps rate cut in Sep’25 and ahigh chance of another 25bps rate cut in Oct’25. The newly issuedWYNMAC6.75moved 0.7pt higher.The rest of WYNMAC 26-29s were largelyunchanged. MGMCHIs were unchanged to 0.1pt higher. See our commenton WynnMacau on12 Aug’25, and on MGMCHI 1H25 resultsyesterday.TWlifers NSINTW/SHIKON tightened 5-10bps. HK Bank T2 BNKEA 34 tightened7bps. MTRC perps edged 0.3pt higher, and BTSDF 9 1/8 07/24/28 was 0.2pthigher.Another higher-yielding name HONGQI 28s were 0.1pt higher.SINOCH 26-40s tightened 6-7bps. TENCNTs tightened 5-10bps. TENCNTannounced solid 2Q25 results; the total revenue/non-IFRS operating incomegrew by 15%/18% yoy to RMB184.5/RMB69.2bn. FOSUNI 26-28s wereunchanged to 0.2pt higher. Fosun Pharma licenses rights to sell medicationto Expedition outside China for up to USD645mn, including USD120mnupfront. In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28-30s dropped 2.3-3.3pts. Holdersof ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 notes have not yet received coupon payments asgrace period expired on 13 Aug’25. CSCHCN 4 ½ 08/19/27 retreated 2.6pts.CSC delays EGM on property services deal after winding-up order. InKR,PKX 30-35s tightened 5-7bps,and HYUELE 26-33s tightened 1-9bps.RAKUTN 27-29s were 2-7bps tighter. See our comment on RAKUTN’saccelerating revenue growth in1H25yesterday.We continue to see demand from China-based investors for Japanese insurance hybrids and Yankee AT1s. In SEA, KRKPSC 27-29stightened 10-15bps. PETMK long-end bonds PETMK 50-60s moved 1.3-1.9pts higher on lower UST. SMCGLPerps were unchanged to 0.1pt higher. VLLPM 27-29s were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. Vista Lands in talkswith banks and noteholders to address December maturities for its PHP notes. TOPTB 28-50s rose 0.5-1.3pts.In LGFV, the new CNH GUAMET 28s and 30s dropped by 0.4pt while GZTIGL 28s moved 0.1pt higher. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.32%), Dow (+1.04%) and Nasdaq(+0.14%) werehigheron Wednesday.UST yield was loweronWednesday, 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.67%/3.77%/4.24%/4.83%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 INDYIJ:1H25 profit eroded on lower ASP and softened market demand Indika Energy (Indika) reported a 20.0% yoy decline in revenue during 1H25 to USD957mn, driven by lowerASP for coal and reduced sales volumes. In 1H25, Kideco’s coal ASP fell 14.5% yoy to USD51.2/ton in 1H25,compared to USD59.9/ton in 1H24. Sales volume also declined, by 3.4% yoy to 14.4mt in 1H25.IndikaResources’ sales volume dropped sharply to 0.3mt in 1H25 from 2.2mt in1H24. The lower sales were primarilyattributable to the weaker demand and decrease in export to China. The extent of ASP decline more than offset the lower cash cost per ton, leading to 49.4% and 28.1% drop inoperating profit and adj. EBITDA in 1H25,respectively. The cash cost (ex. royalty) in 1H25 decreased by 6.6%yoy to USD34.2/ton, due to the lower strip ratio at 5.1x.The cash cost (incl. royalty) fell 11.6% yoy toUSD45.1/ton, reflecting lower ASP and the impact of a new royalty structure. The Indonesian governmentapproved changes on the IUPK royalty structure, effective from 26 Apr’25. Coal is now subject to a maximumroyalty rate of28% when prices reach USD180/ton or above, compared to the previous threshold ofUSD100/ton. Indika has been diversifying into non-coal businesses, including mineral, electric vehicles and green energy.Non-coal revenue in 1H25 grew 29% yoy to USD186mn, accounting for 19% of Indika’s total revenue, up from12% in 1H24. However, this growth only partially offset the impact of lower ASP and sales volume of the coaloperations.Coal operations, accounting for 77% of Indika’s revenue in 1H25, remain to be the key driv