流动秀：一个美丽的大泡沫

One Big Beautiful Bubble Scores on the Doors: gold 26.6%, stocks 11.4%, IG bonds 7.6%, HY bonds 7.1%, govtbonds 7.0%, commods 2.7%, cash 2.2%, oil -6.6%, US dollar -10.4%, crypto -10.6% YTD. 03 July 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Can’t cut spending, can’t cut defense, can’t cut debt, go big with tariffs, soonly way they can pay for One Big Beautiful Bill is with One Big Beautiful Bubble.” The Biggest Picture: Big Beautiful Bill set to raise US debt ceiling $5tn to $41tn (Chart2); US debt set to rise to ~$43tn by next US election in’28, to exceed ~$50tn by’32. Tale of the Tape: political U-turns on German fiscal, UK benefit spending, US DOGE,electorates/politicians not voting for lower debt/deficits (govt spend % GDP = 44% UK,41% US–Chart 5); why asset allocators so averse to long bonds, cutting US dollarexposure, raising allocation to international markets, hard assets, digital assets in‘25. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Price is Right: worst first half for US dollar (-11%–Chart 3) since‘73, best forgold (26%) since‘79, best for ACWI ex-US stocks (16%) since‘93; long“long bond”whiffed (TLT 2.9%), but S&P 500 reversed $10tn market cap loss with $11tn gain (Mag7up $5tn–Chart 4), and 7k vs 5k“bubble or bust”summer risk firmly skewed to former. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Chart2:Stickaporkinit!US publicdebt outstanding & CBO projections ($tn) Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors shouldhave experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 11.12847681 Acronyms on page 9 Timestamp: 03 July 2025 09:12PM EDT Weekly Flows: $56.4bn to cash, $20.5bn to bonds, $2.2bn to stocks, $1.4bn to gold,$1.0bn to crypto. Weekly Flows to Know: •Treasuries: biggest outflow in 9 weeks ($2.7bn);•IG bonds: biggest inflow since Jun’20 ($16.7bn - Chart 6);•Bank loans: biggest inflow in nearly 5 months ($1.4bn);•EM equities: biggest outflow in 6 weeks ($0.6bn);•US growth: biggest outflow since Mar’25 ($5.0bn);•US mid cap: biggest outflow since Jul’24 ($5.7bn);•Financials: biggest inflow since Jan’25 ($1.6bn). BofA Private Clients: $4.0tn AUM…63.7% allocation to stocks (highest since Mar'22),18.5% to bonds (lowest since Jun'22), and 10.8% to cash; in past 4 weeks private clientsbuying HY bond, low-vol stock, muni bond ETFs, and selling Japan, high-dividend, equitygrowth ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to 6.0 from 5.8, highest since US election on biginflows to bonds (HY & EM), strong global stock index breadth (99thpercentile since2002), robust credit market technicals, offset by weaker equity fund inflows, bearishhedge fund positioning (CFTC data adding protection against lower SPX, stronger JPY). BofA Global Breadth Rule: when >88% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices tradingabove 50-& 200-day moving averages…sell, and when >88% trading below…buy;currently 82% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices trading above 50- and 200-daymoving averages; July move in SPX >6300 likely triggers“sell signal”; overboughtmarkets can stay overbought as greed is harder to conquer than fear. BofA Global Flow Trading Rule: when flows to global equity & high yield bondsexceed 1.0% of AUM in 4 weeks…sell, and when outflows >1.0% of AUM...buy; past 4weeks inflows to global equities & HY bonds 0.9% of AUM…backs off slightly from lastweek’s near“sell signal”(0.99%) due to small outflow from stocks this week. Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg USgeneral gover