流动秀：小即是大

Small isBig Scores on the Doors:gold 35.4%, bitcoin 17.2%, stocks 14.3%, HY bonds 8.5%, IG8.3%, govt bonds 6.2%, commodities 4.5%, cash 2.9%, US dollar-9.3%, oil-11.4% YTD. 18 September 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal Tale of the Tape: tariff cuts, tax cuts, rate cuts…”run-it-hot”US policy, implicitguarantee economy & stocks“too big to fail”;biggest jump in US mortgage refi sinceMar'20 on lower rates (Chart3)saysFed cutting into acceleration; best equity trade forgrowth up/yields down = long bond sensitives, i.e.small cap, REITs, biotech; note smallcap inUS (up 8%YTD) laggingbig, small cap in China 51%, EU 25%, Japan 25%. The Price is Right:Fed cutting with gold, crypto, stocks, credit atall-time highs, USdebt burdenthreateningYCC,“global rebalancing”newtheme of H2’2020s…US$toremain inbear…+ve International stocks...note Japanyen &stocks positively correlated1sttimein20 years(Chart5& 6)…true bull markets = risingFX& stocks. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: Trump job disapproval on inflation high(59%-Chart2);assetprice inflation begets consumer priceinflation (US household equity wealth +$6tn YTD-Chart4)and2ndwaveofinflation politically very riskybefore’26 midterms;soUSgovtinterventionto control prices in sectors that“whip inflation”(Big Pharma & Big Energy)set to continue/expand;surging electricity bills…Big Utilitiesnext mostvulnerablesector. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas andinvestment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivityof this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page10to12.12877534 Timestamp: 18 September 2025 10:54PM EDT Weekly Flows: $68.4bn to stocks, $14.3bn to bonds, $3.8bn to crypto, $2.0bn to gold,$4.8bn from cash. Weekly Flows to Know: •Cash: 1stoutflow in 7 weeks ($4.8bn);•Bonds: smallest inflow in 3 months($14.3bn);•Global stocks: biggest inflow since Dec’24 ($68.4bn);•US stocks: biggest inflow since Dec’24 ($57.7bn);•EM stocks: biggest inflow in 5 months ($7.6bn, of which $5.4bn into China funds). YTD Flows to Know: •Cash: 3rdhighest inflow year ever ($1tn);•Gold: record inflow year ($85bn);•Treasuries: 3rdhighest inflow year ever ($141bn);•IG bonds: 2ndhighest inflow year ever ($381bn);•EM debt: 2ndhighest inflow year ever ($63bn);•Global stocks: 3rdhighest inflow year ever ($634bn);•US stocks: 3rdhighest inflow year ever ($294bn). BofA Private Clients: $4.2tn AUM…64.6% stocks (highest since Mar’22), 18.0% bonds(lowest since May’22), 10.4% cash (lowest since Sep’18); private clients selling stocks,cutting cash, buying bonds (mostly T-bills this week); GWIM buying EM debt, preciousmetals, HY bond ETFs, and selling energy, healthcare, staples ETFs past 4 weeks. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: stays at 6.0 as bullish inputs of low FMS cash levels(3.9%), strong global stock index breadth, inflows to EM stocks offset by bearish inputsof smaller inflows tocredit, hedge fund longpositions in2-year UST futures. BofA Global Breadth Rule:87% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices trading aboveboth 50-day and 200-day moving averages = stock indices close to overbought (BofAGlobal Breadth Rule…“when >88% of trading above 50/200dma…sell, when >88%trading below…buy”;trading bulls shouldchase laggards not indices. How totradea bubble: 10 equity bubblessince 1900 (Table1)…average trough-to-peak gains of 244%, ending with average trailing PE of 58x,equityindex trading 29%above 200dma; Magnificent 7 best bubble proxy today…up 223% since Mar'