流动秀：泡沫已冰镇

The bubbly’son ice 20 November 2025 The Flow Show will return on December 4th. Investment StrategyGlobal Scoreson the Doors: gold 54.2%, international stocks 24.6%, US stocks 11.2%, IGbonds 9.3%, HY bonds 9.0%, commodities 6.0%, government bonds 5.7%, cash 3.8%,bitcoin-7.1%, US dollar -7.7%, oil -18.3% YTD. Zeitgeist:“Payrolls were negative in June and August, so thetrade war was deflationary,and that’s why the new US trade policy will be lower tariff rates.” Zeitgeist:“US mid caps on 15x, yields down, trade war over, reshoring, yet they are downonthe year. Fed way behind-curve, but when Fed forced to cut big, tons of stuff to buy.” Tale of the Tape: BoJ needs to hike…JGB yields breaking higher (Chart 5 - long-datedJGBs on track for worst 12% annual loss since 1970s), yen breaking lower (on cusp of40-year lows…JPY 160); Japan“debasement”as new Japan PM seeks big fiscal stimulus(3% GDP) & BoJ real policy rate negative (-2%) why Japan carry-trade unwinding. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Price is Right: Fed needs to cut…says crypto, credit, dollar, private equity (see BXvs JPM–Chart 4), all trading“peak liquidity; bubbly“animal spirits”driven by mass ratecuts past 2 years (Chart)and belief more coming in‘26; as in Dec’18, quickest route toFed capitulation…banks (BKX<140), brokers (XBD<950) first start trading liquidity event;we long zero-coupon bonds to front-run Fed capitulation. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: peak-to-trough bitcoin -30%, ether -41% (Chart 2); crypto just0.4% of institutional asset allocation(per BofA Nov FMS) but record’25 retail inflows tocrypto ($46bn), derivatives now 74% of crypto trading volume…frontier of liquidity &speculation, will be be first to sniff out Fed coming to rescue. Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources toabsorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may havea conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12905144 Timestamp: 20 November 2025 09:28PM EST Weekly Flows: $26.2bn to stocks, $18.1bn to bonds, $1.9bn to gold, $2.2bn from crypto(2ndlargest outflow on record–Chart 8), $14.0bn from cash (1stoutflow in 5 weeks). Flows to Know: •Treasuries: $8.8bn inflow, biggest since Apr’25;•TIPS: $0.6bn outflow, biggest since Apr’25 (Chart 9);•MBS: $1.8bn outflow, biggest since Oct’22 (Chart 10);•US value stocks: $3.6bn inflow, biggest in 9 weeks;•Tech: $4.4bn inflow, on pace for record $75bn inflow in’25;•Consumer: $1.5bn outflow, record 4-week outflow ($4.7bn);•Healthcare: $2.4bn inflow, biggest since Jan’21. BofA Private Clients: $4.2tn AUM…64.6% stocks, 18.1% bonds, 10.3% cash, biggestweekly inflow to equities since Mar’25; past 4 weeks, private clients buying growth, munibond and Japan ETFs, and selling bank loan, financials and precious metal ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: dips to 6.2 from 6.3 on wider credit spreads, weakerglobal stock index breadth (just 27% of indices trading > 50/200dma) & HY bondoutflows, partly offset by low 3.7% FMS cash levels as % AUM. BofA Global FMS on Year Ahead: institutional investor positioning & expectations for2026 perNov’25 BofA Global FMS… •On macro & markets: investors expect soft landing (53% vs 37% predicting nolanding & just 6% a hard landing), lower rates, higher profits (most optimistic sinceDec'24); investors are long stocks & commodities (most OW since Sep'22), andshort cash (a very low 3.7% of AUM) & bonds; •On assets: investors believe best performing assets in’26 will beinternationalstocks