总结大型美丽法案的影响

Wrapping up the big beautiful bill We look at the implications of the just-passed BBB for budgetdeficits, Treasury issuance and markets. We expect deficits toremain elevated, but net issuance of notes/bonds to investorsto fall as the Treasury raises the share of T-bills in outstandingdebt. This should help compress term premium. Anshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, US Amrut Nashikkar+1 212 412 1848amrut.nashikkar@barclays.comBCI, US We appreciate your5-star votein the2025Extel Global Fixed-Income Research Surveyin theUSA: Economics & Strategy: U.S. Rates Strategy, Short-duration, TIPS and Interest RateDerivatives categories.View our analysts »Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » Andres Mok, CFA+1 212 526 8690andres.mok@barclays.comBCI, US Key Takeaways •Budget deficits are likely to remain about 6.5% of GDP, as net new tax cuts areoffsetbytariffrevenues and spending cuts. In $ terms, the deficit will still rise from about $1.9trn in FY25 to$2.2trn in FY28 and $2.9trn in FY34. Higher budget deficits are, however, unlikely to translateinto higher net issuance of notes/bonds to investors (ex-Fed) for several years. We expect thatactually to fall from $1.75trn in CY 25 to about $1.2trn in CY 26 and CY 27. Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, US Jonathan Hill, CFA+1 212 526 3497jonathan.hill@barclays.comBCI, US •Judging from Secretary Bessent's comments, the Treasury is in no rush to term out debt,reflecting elevated long-term rates in outright terms, as well as versus the expected policyrate path. He also views stablecoins as significantly increasing demand for T-bills, suggestingcomfort with a higher share of T-bills than in recent history. We expect the Treasury tocontinue to emphasize this demand channel. Demi Hu+1 212 526 7398demi.hu@barclays.comBCI, US •We expect the Treasury to keep coupon auctions sizes unchanged for all of next year, withmodest increases beginning in early 2027. Were it to keep them unchanged through 2027, theshare of T-bills would rise from 22% at YE 25 to 25% by YE 27. While still in line with historicalaverages, annual net issuance of T-bills to investors would rise to $1.0trn in 2027, which maybe too high for its comfort. Eveline Dong+1 212 526 9576eveline.dong@barclays.comBCI, US •We expect 2y-7y issue sizes to be 15-20% higher in 2027 and those further out to remainunchanged. For TIPS, we project further increases in auction sizes at the 5y and 10y tenors,while 30y remains unchanged. The buyback program is likely to be scaled up later this year.The WAM shoulddriftlower towards the historical range. •Gross issuance over 2026 and 2027 would be about $700bn lower in 10y-equivalent termsthan versus the counterfactual of the Treasury raising auction sizes across the curve, with agoal of bringing the share of T-bills to about 20% by YE 27. We believe that is worth about25bp in 10y term premium. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 15.Completed: 08-Jul-25, 01:19 GMTReleased: 08-Jul-25, 10:30 GMTRestricted - External •At the refunding meeting, we expect the Treasury to reiterate that it "anticipates maintainingnominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." With the debtlimit raised, it would rely heavily on T-bills to raise the cash balance quickly. We expect net T-bill issuance of $830bn in H2 25 and annual net issuance to average $700-800bn in CY 26-27. •Separately, the Fed has been shrinking its Treasury portfolio for some time now, by $475bn in2024 and $120bn in 2025. We expect QT to end by March 2026 and the Fed to become a buyerof USTs as it reinvests mortgage pay-downs into the Treasury market and eventually expandsthe balance sheet in 2027 to keep up with rising demand for reserves. Market implications •Duration: For a terminal fed funds rate pricing of 3-3.25%, we expect 10y and 30y yields todecline to 4.2% and 4.6% by year-end, respectively, 20-30bp below market pricing as termpremium compresses. For a more meaningful persistent move either way, the market needsto reassess the terminal rate. •Curve: The Treasury yield curve should remain steep as the Fed lowers the policy rate, butless than implied by forwards. The 1y forward 2s30s Treasury curve should be about 100bp,as opposed to the market-implied curve of 125bp. •Money markets:We expect T-bills to cheapen relative to OIS and SOFR to rise vs. fed fundsamid the rapid increase in net T-bill issuance over the coming months. However, given thecurrent and expected level of money ma