美国零售硬线与广线：大型美丽法案对消费者和零售商意味着什么？

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEINTICKERTABLETickerRatingCOST0DG0DLTRMWMT0TGTuSPXWMT base year is 2025;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSWe rate COST, WMT, and DG Outperform. We rate DLTR Market-Perform, and TGT Underperform.s微信US RETAILING BROADLINES & HARDLINES 9eCBERNSTEIN|SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP DETAILSWHAT IS SNAP?SNAP, or Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, provides benefits to low-income, senior, disabled or other householdsinneed.SNAPbenefits canbeusedtopurchasefruitsandvegetables,meatanddairyproducts,breadandcereals,and otherfood and non-alcoholic beverages. Alcoholic beverages, supplements, live animals, hot foods or any non-food items cannot bepurchased with SNAP.1In FY24, ~$94B of SNAP benefits (excluding child nutrition discretionary funds) were paid out, averaging ~$7.9B per month.Themonthlybenefitwas~s35Oonaverageperhouseholdand$188onaverageperperson.Inrecentyears,SNAPbenefitcosts have been coming down after CovID-related emergency measures lapsed.For more details on the nature of SNAP, and its recent history, please see: "US Retail & Food: Oh SNAPI Potential SNAP budgetcuts and implications for US retail and food companies"WHAT'S IN THE BILL? $186B SNAP CUT OVER 10 YEARSAt a high level, the Bill trades off $4.5T in tax cuts with $1.1T in net spending cuts - the primary deficit rises by $3.4T, or $4.1Taccounting for debt interest. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) now estimates the gross deficit to reach~130% of USGDPbyFY2034.2A lot of money then, but what about SNAP? According to the Senate Bill, the cut to SNAP is $186B (FY2025-FY2034, Exhibit 1).The key changes are (among others)thresholds to claim exceptions from the work requirements (e.g. state exemptions or exemptions for dependents). The effectof these changes is to reduce the number of people who are eligible for SNAP benefits.: Requiring States to match SNAP funds (S34B) - States will be required to fund part of SNAP. Today, the match is O%. Thiswill increase to at least 5%, and more depending on the payment error rate (the sum of over- and under-payment of SNAPbenefits). The incentive here is to force States to waste less money in disbursing SNAP (FY2023 error rate was ~11.68%nationally).3This requirement would start in FY2028.: Limits on state admin cost sharing ($25B) - The proportion of administrative costs that the USDA will reimburse to stateswill now be capped at 25%. It is at 50% today.: Excluding internet expenses from SNAP calculation (S11B) - Currently, utility costs are taken into account whendetermining eligibility. These include internet costs (e.g. monthly subscriptions). They will not be going forward, which willresult in lower SNAP benefit payouts.4In FY2024, the SNAP program cost was~$100B ($94B benefits + $6B admin costs).5 As a rough measure, splitting the $186Bover 10 years implies a ~20% cut to that number at the end of the 10-year period, without assuming inflation adjustments andotherincreasespreviouslybaked intotheUSDAbudget.1 What Can SNAP Buy?I Food and Nutrition Service2 The Senate OBBBA in Charts-2025-06-303 sNAP: 1 in 10 households are not receiving the correct monthly benefit; here's what to know - silive.com5 sNAP Participation and CostUS RETAILING BROADLINES HARDLINES BERNSTEIN SOCI EXHIBIT 1: The OBBBA applies changes to the nature of the SNAP program that are projected to cut program costsby $186B over the FY2025-FY2034 period.Deficit IncreaseAgriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry(FY2025-FY2034)Strengthen SNAP Work Requirements$69 billionEstablish SNAP Matching Funds Requirement for States$34 billionLimit Executive Power to Increase Agricultural Subsidies$37 billionReduce Federal Share of Administrative Costs for SNAP Program$25 billionExclude Internet Expenses from SNAP Benefit Calculations$11 billionLink Eligibility for SNAP Benefits on Receipt of Other Federal Benefits$6 billionRestrict SNAP Eligibility for Undocumented Individuals$2 billionSNAP Cuts$186 billionOther Savings Provisions$7 billionIncrease Farm Subsidies and Other Agricultural Safety Net Programs-$65 billionFund Agricultural Trade Promotion-$2 billionOther Spending Provisions-$4 billionInteractions-$5billionSubtotal: Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry$114 billionSource: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CFRB), Bernstein analysisWHAT IS THE IMPACT ON THE CONSUMER? EFFECTS ARE BACK-WEIGHTEDIt is worth noting that, so far, everything is a projection. The $186B in cuts over 10 years (FY2025-FY2034) come as relevantauthorities revise their projections using a more or less static set of assumptions. The list of levers used to curb SNAP benefits,effectively been passed on to the States. So, to the extent that States will be able to foot the bill, there will be no appreciabledifference to the end-recipient. Within the $60B, $25B are admin costs - these aren't disbursed anyway.Taking these into consideration, the real cost to SNAP benefits, from the recipient'