美国太阳能市场迎来新时代：大型美丽法案（BBB）重塑市场格局

EguitiesElectric Utilities, Equipment &ServicesUnited StatesDaniel Yang*Analyst, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddaniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 299 66976Meike Becker*Head of EuropeanUtilities&RenewablesHSBC Bank plcmeike.becker@hsbc.comSeanMcLoughlinEMEA Head of Industrials ResearchHSBC Bank plcsean.mcloughlin@hsbcib.com442079913464Yonghua Park,CFAAnalyst, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedyonghua.park@hsbc.com.hk+8523941 7005Samantha Hoh,CFASenior Analyst, Ciean TechHSBC Securities (USA) Incsamantha.hoh@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 8783Evan Li*Head, Asia Energy Transition ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+85229966619Lucille Tang*AssociateGuangzhou* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant toFINRAregulationsHSBC Global Investment Research PodcastsListen to our insightsFind out moreIssuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedViewHSBC Global Researchat:https:/www.research.hsbc.com Solar demand looks solid into 2028US solar installation to still reach new peak in 2026/27 under BBBHow will the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB; signed into law by the Trump administration on 4 July),reshape the US solar industry in the coming years? While media have been headlining this as amajorblow to solar demand, we think the final provisions are not as bad as the marketfearedHere's a recap on key items in BBB related to solar demand:Section 48E/45Y Investment Tax Credit (ITC)/Production Tax Credit (PTC) for large scaleITC for energy storage remains intact vs under the Inflation Reduction Act, with phase outschedule starting from 2034 onwards.Bonus credtts, I.e. domestic content, energy community, are preserved.Seetiof 25D Residential credits is removed from 2026, but solar leases stil qualify forScredits through 2027.Transferabilitywould continueto be availablefor the duration of the creditperiod.FEOC requirement effective from 2026, but more workable than the original House versionfor project developers and operators.For US solar installation, we expect a 7% y-o-y decline this year as development in projectstakeapauseforpolicy uncertainty.Weforecastsolardemandto recapturedecentgrowth in2026/27 by reaching a new record high to above 50GW and nearly 60GW respectively. 2028 islikely to be a slow year for demand, but will still be higher than the new builds in 2025 in ourview. Our key considerations include:The major policy overhang is now removed. The industry shall quickly move fromwondering what will happen to adapting to the changes.Large scale projects in their late-stage development, with a total of 102GW in Mayaccording to Woodmac, are likely to rush to start construction by mid-2026 to safe harbourfull ITC/PTC credits, and be placed in service within four years under current treasuryguidelines.The residential market should be under the most pressure, but solar leases, with a currentmarket share of 52%, shall further take share and help offset some decline from solar loans.Current bottlenecks of the market remain in place and see no major improvement, includinglong grid interconnection queue, EPC availability, high interest rate, trade tariffs, etc. We forecast us solar demandto reclaim double digitgrowth in 2026/272 revise the guidance regarding “beginning of construction" by August. This may affect theprojectsthat planto startconstructionguickly in orderto lock inthe credits,forexamplebyincreasing capex thresholds,and thus could be a further risk factor on solar demand to watch inthe near future.US solar installation to reach new peak in 2026/27GW705960505252465041403023201002022202320242025202620272028Utility scale Residential C&lSource: Wood Mackenzie, HSBC estimatesUS solar installation forecast breakdown by segmentGW2022202320242025202620272028Residential6375443435C&I345Utility scale1431385244Total23415046525952Source: Wood Mackenzie, HSBC estimatesUS utility-scale solar project in late development could start construction to safe harbourITC/PTCGW250229200A total of 102GW utility projects in the late-stage150development pipeline as of May 20251005075270Under-constructionLate-stage developmentEarly-stage developmentSource: Wood Mackenzie Beyond tax credits,driversforsolarinthe mediumto longtermOver a longer term, we remain bullish on solar demand in the US even without tax credits, likeITC/PTC. Here's a list of factors that could support our view:Strong power demand: Power consumption in the US is expected to growth by more than20% from now to 2030, the strongest growth in decades, driven by broad demand fromnear-shoring, electrification, cooling or Al data & centres. During the same period, overDepartment of Energy recently, highlighting increased risk of outages.Developers can continue to pass on higher cost in PPA prices: Since 2021, US solarPPA prices have risen by c3oUSD/MWh already on higher cost and inter