办公楼市场报告

Contents Macroeconomic overview03 11Office Market 24Workplace evolution 30ESG impact 34Supply and Demand Analysisin the Office Market 39New trends MacroeconomicOverview In the wake of avolatile geopolitical landscape—from new U.S. trade barriersand escalating Middle East conflicts to the recent Iran‑Israel tensions—the globaleconomy is enveloped in an unprecedented fog ofuncertainty. This heightenedunpredictabilityhas disrupted trade flows, rattled financial markets, and drivenenergy price spikes, undermining business and investor confidence. Reflecting theseadverse dynamics, the IMFdowngraded its global growth forecast for 2025by 0.5 percentage points (from 3.3% to 2.8%)and by 0.3 points for 2026 (to3.0%). Crucially, this adjustment affects nearlyall major economies: the U.S.was cut to 1.8%, the euro area trimmed to 0.8%, China lowered to 4%,and countries such as Canada, Mexico, Japan and Germany also saw significantdownward revisions. The IMF highlightsthat pervasive policy‑driven uncertaintyand trade tensions pose risks of further drag on growth, tightening financialconditions, and exacerbating inflation—making clear that this era of volatilityhas fundamentally reshaped the global growth outlook. After a challenging period for the European economy, marked bystagnant growthdue to the impact of the war in Ukraine, 2024 began to showmore stable growth.Nevertheless, the outlook remains highly uncertain, influenced by internationaldevelopments, trade policy unpredictability, and ongoing tensions in financialmarkets. In 2024,the European Union economy recorded moderate growth,with a real GDP increase of +0.9%compared to the previous year, while the euroarea posted growth of +0.8%. Inflation, on the other hand, showed signs of easingcompared to 2022 and 2023, standing at+1.9% in the euro Area and +2.2%in the European Union in May 2025. Spring forecasts of the European Commission for 2025 anticipatemoderategrowth, with GDP expected to rise by 1.1% in the European Union and 0.9%in the euro area. Inflation is projected to decrease to 2.1% in the euro area and 2.4%in the European Union.Despite the start of the monetary policy interest ratereduction phase in June 2024, banks only slightly eased lending standardsfor businesses and kept household credit conditions largely unchanged.However, terms and conditions for loans to both businesses and households becamemore favorable through lower interest rates, facilitating the provision of moreaccommodative financing terms. +0.6%EU’s GDP growthon Q1 2025 +2.2%EU’s Inflation ratein may 2025 ECB’s Interest rates (left), Interest rate – loans other thanoverdrafts to non-financial corporations In the first quarter of 2025, Italy’s GDP grew by 0.3%, up from 0.1% in theprevious quarter. On an annual basis, growth increased from 0.6% in Q4 2024to 0.7% in Q1 2025. This growth was driven bypositive contributions from bothdomestic and foreign demand. Specifically, national demand net of inventoriescontributed +0.4 percentage points, with final national consumption up by +0.1%and gross fixed capital formation increasing by +0.3%. Government spendingprovided a slightly negative contribution of‑0.1%.Net foreign demand alsocontributed positively by +0.1%, while changes in inventories acted as a dragon growth with a negative contribution of‑0.3 percentage points. On the supply side,value added showed positive developments across sectors.Agriculture rebounded by 1.4%, recovering from a 0.7% contraction in the previousquarter. Industry expanded by 1.2%, continuing the positive trend observed at theend of 2024 (+0.9%). In contrast, the services sector contracted slightly by 0.1%,maintaining the slowdown seen in the previous period. Between 2022 and 2023, Italy recorded a significant acceleration in consumerinflation. This increase was mainly driven by energy price shocks, disruptionsin supply chains, and the broader effects of geopolitical instability, particularlythe conflict in Ukraine. The general index reached its peak in the second halfof 2022, with the sharpest increase observed around November (11.9%).During the same period, core inflation also rose sharply, reaching its highest levelin March 2023 (6.3%). Starting from the early months of 2023, both headlineand core inflation in Italy began to gradually decline. This trend continuedthroughout 2024, while aslight increasewas recorded during the first months,caused by spikes in energy and services prices. According to final Istat data,in May 2025 the year‑on‑year change in the NICindex* was +1.6%, down from +1.9% in April. Core inflation also slowed,decreasing from +2.1% to +1.9%. These results confirm aprogressive easingof inflationary pressures, although some underlying dynamics persist, particularlyin sectors where prices tend to adjust more slowly. The unemployment rate in Italy has followed a downward trend, thoughwith some fluctuations: it declined from an initial peak of 6.9% in June 2024to6.1% in April 2025, in