博茨瓦纳：公共部门债务统计数据质量评估

BOTSWANA Data Quality Assessment for Public Sector DebtStatistics (May 14–20, 2025) August 2025 Prepared ByAndrew Kitili and Bruno Rocha PARTNERS: DISCLAIMER The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by thestaff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country orinternational agency (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development.Unless the CD recipient specifically objects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF willpublish this high-level summary on IMF.org (see Staff Operational Guidance on the Disseminationof Capacity Development Information). 2025 International Monetary Fund HLS/25/32 High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportStatistics Department Botswana – Data Quality Assessment for Public Sector Debt Statistics Prepared by Andrew Kitili and Bruno Rocha TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-levelsummaries of the assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describingthe high-level objectives, findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT:In May 2025, an assessment was undertaken of the data quality of the public sectordebt statistics (PSDS) of Botswana against the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework(DQAF) for PSDS. The mission was as part of a project to strengthen the quality of public sectordebt statistics in selected African countries, funded by the Government of Japan. The missionreviewed the PSDS compilation and dissemination practices against each element of the DQAFand presented a series of recommendations to further improve the quality and transparency of thePSDS of Botswana. Background 1.Botswana implemented the IMF’s enhanced General Data Dissemination System(e-GDDS) in January 2016. However, the reporting of PSDS through the National Summary DataPage (NSDP) is limited in coverage. Since 2016, Botswana has received significant capacitydevelopment support from the IMF’s Statistics Department to strengthen its capacity for compilinggovernment finance statistics (GFS) and PSDS. This support has focused on helping Botswana compileand publish quarterly PSDS regularly through the NSDP and the joint IMF-World Bank Quarterly PublicSector Debt (QPSD) database. Over the years, Botswana has pursued a prudent and credible debtmanagement strategy, maintaining a maximum ceiling of public debt to GDP below 40 percent, splitequally between external and domestic debt. The latest IMF-World Bank debt sustainability analysis(DSA) indicates that the overall risk of sovereign stress is low, reflecting low levels of vulnerability in boththe medium and long term. However, due to changing global economic conditions, Botswana has startedexperiencing spikes in debt ratios, reaching 28 percent of GDP in March 2025, excluding other accountspayables. This represents a sharp increase compared to 20.2 percent of GDP in December 2023.1Asizable portion of Botswana’s external debt is long-term, owed mainly to multilateral and bilateralcreditors. Since 2018, an increasing share of Botswana’s debt has been held by domestic banks andother domestic creditors (e.g., pension funds), while the share of external official creditors has declined. 2.Against this background, the main objective of the mission was to use the IMF’s DQAF toidentify areas for improvement in PSDS compilation and dissemination processes andrecommend priority actions to help Botswana enhance public debt data transparency. Discussionswith various stakeholders and a review of data received and published indicate that Botswana’s publicdebt statistics are broadly dependable but need further improvement to enhance coverage andtimeliness. Most importantly, there is a need to ramp up debt management functions in the MoF to bringthem up to par with modern-day debt management offices, incorporating front office, middle office, andback-office functions. Compilation methods broadly follow international statistical standards, but ITresources need to be revamped to safeguard against operational risks and facilitate interfacing with otherinternal IT systems—such as the new Commonwealth Secretariat Meridian system (CS-Meridian) and theBoB’s Central Securities Depository (CSDB)—for efficient data exchange. Table 1 provides the summaryratings of the assessment based on the DQAF. Summary of Findings and Priority Recommendations 3.Prerequisitesof Quality:This category in the DQAF assessed the conditions that have an impacton data quality within the main agencies in charge of producing PSDS in Botswana. The assessmentfocused on the legal and institutional environment, resources, and quality awareness. (a)Legal Environment:The responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating public debtstatistics in Botswana needs to be clearly established in the law. Sections 25 and 26 of the PublicFinance Management Act, 2011 (PFMA 2011), require the Minister of Finance to inform the NationalAssembly