热浪对学习成果的影响和有条件现金转移支付的作用：来自秘鲁的证据

11171 Impact of Heat Waves on Learning Outcomesand the Role of Conditional Cash Transfers Evidence from Peru Juan José MirandaCesar Contreras Policy Research Working Paper11171 Abstract This paper evaluates the impact of higher temperatures onlearning outcomes in Peru. The results suggest that 1 degreeabove 20°C is equivalent to 7 and 6 percent of a standarddeviation of what a student learns in a year for math andreading tests, respectively. These results hold true when themain specification is changed, splitting the sample, col-lapsing the data at school level, and using other climate specifications. The paper aims to improve understanding ofhow to deal with the impacts of climate change on learningoutcomes in developing countries. The evidence suggeststhat conditional cash transfer programs can mitigate thenegative effects of higher temperatures on students’ learningoutcomes in math and reading. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Impact of Heat Waves on Learning Outcomes and the Roleof Conditional Cash Transfers: Evidence from Peru* Juan José MirandaThe World Bankjjmiranda@worldbank.orgCesar ContrerasPUCP and IEPcesar.contreras@pucp.edu.pe 1Introduction An extensive body of literature suggests that extreme temperatures decrease academic perfor-mance (Graff-Zivin et al.,2020;Park et al.,2020). The adoption of air conditioning is oneeffective strategy to offset these negative effects.Park et al.(2020) state that air condition- ingin schools can reduce the impact of extreme temperatures by almost 70% compared to schoolswithout it. Other studies suggest improving school infrastructure to mitigate the effects ofextreme temperature (Lafortune and Schonholzer,2022;Neilson and Zimmerman,2014).However, these alternative strategies are not a viable alternative in the schools of low- andmiddle-income countries, since policy makers are focused on essential problems such as howto reduce the high degree of infrastructural inequality between schools. The objectives of thisresearch report are twofold. The first is to calculate the effects of higher temperature on learn-ing outcomes for 6-year-old children. The second is to evaluate whether social programs canreduce the effects of adverse temperatures. Middle-income countries face many structural inequalities. In addition to inequality in edu-cational infrastructure, a middle-income country faces environmental challenges.Diffenbaughand Burke(2019) state that the poorest countries are the most affected by climate change. Thesecountries experience negative impacts of heat on both the physical capabilities (such as laborproductivity) and the cognitive capacities (such as learning outcomes) of their citizenry (Parket al.,2020).Studying heat impacts on children in a middle-income country is particularlyimportant because it can help us to understand the mechanisms of dealing with higher temper-atures. In this paper, we analyze the high degree of climate variability in Peru, a middle-income coun-try, and the staggered adoption of a conditional cash transfer program spread nationwide. Peruhas 84 of the 117 living areas and 28 of the 32 climates in the world (Bovarnick et al.,2010). Tocapture the heterogeneity of temperature, we use a degree days definition. ERA5-Land of theEuropean Center for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) allows us to calculate mul-tiple climate variables in Peru. This dataset is joined with educational administrative datasetsto evaluate the impact of extreme temperature on learning outcomes. Administrative data offersa useful view to examine accurate learning outcomes. Furthermore, this data has the benefit ofevaluating primary students in a standardized way at a national level. Finally, we link the maindata to a conditional cash transfer program called the Juntos Program, which is intended toalleviate poverty. The main result suggests that 1 degree above 20°C is equivalent to 7% and 6% of a standard de-viation of what a student learns in a year for Math and Reading tests, respectively. We contendthat this effect is high, since the impact of higher temperatures on high-stakes exams has previ-ously been shown to be equivalent to 7.5% of a standard deviation of what a student learns on average in United States (Park et al.,2020). We also argue that temperatures above 22°C couldbe worse for learning outc