新兴市场的货币政策与企业生产力（英）

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKTheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent.ADB Economics Working Paper SeriesMonetary Policy and Corporate Productivityin Emerging MarketsNuobu Renzhi and John BeirneNo. 793 | July 2025 Nuobu Renzhi (renzhinuobu@gmail.com) is anassistant professor and assistant dean at the Schoolof Economics, Capital University of Economicsand Business. John Beirne (jbeirne@adb.org) isa principal economist at the Economic Researchand Development Impact Department, AsianDevelopment Bank. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)© 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444Some rights reserved. Published in 2025.ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250281-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250281-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to useCorrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China. www.adb.orgthe ADB logo.Note: ABSTRACTThis paper examines the impact of monetary policy shocks on firm-level productivity across 32emergingmarket economies from 2000 to 2023,using panel local projections and acomprehensive firm-level dataset. We identify exogenous monetary policy shocks using aforward-looking Taylor rule and analyze their dynamic impact on total factor productivity. Theresults indicate a significant and persistent decline in productivity following a monetary-tighteningshock. Crucially, financial frictions drive heterogeneous responses among firms: firms facinghigher financial frictions experience more severe and prolonged productivity losses, whereasthose with lower frictions recover more quickly. Additionally, firms characterized by low marketpower, younger age, or operation in financially vulnerable sectors, such as services, experiencelarger and longer-lasting productivity losses compared to their counterparts. Furthermore, we findasymmetric effects, whereby contractionary monetary shocks result in substantial productivitylosses, while expansionary shocks fail to generate offsetting gains.Keywords:productivity, monetary policy, emerging markets JEL codes:D22, D24, E52 I. INTRODUCTIONProductivity has long been a topic of interest as it matters greatly for economic growth and welfare.This importance is further enhanced by the significant fall in labor productivity growth over thepast few decades (e.g., Goldin et al. 2024). Although emerging market economies (EMEs) havedemonstrated stronger productivity growth compared to the global average, they have alsoexperienced a pronounced slowdown in recent years (e.g., Adler et al. 2017). This trend hasraised widespread concern and sparked debate on its underlying causes. Many scholars attributethe slowdown to factors such as reduced innovation and declining business dynamism (Fernald2015; Cette, Fernald, and Mojon 2016; Decker et al. 2016). However, an increasing body ofliterature argues that tighter financial conditions and weakened corporate balance sheet