衡量撒哈拉以南非洲新兴市场和前沿市场的货币政策立场（英）

Measuring MonetaryPolicy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emergingand Frontier Markets Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, and Shant Arzoumanian WP/25/160 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025AUG IMF Working PaperAfrican Department Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emerging and Frontier MarketsPrepared by Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, and Shant Arzoumanian * Authorized for distribution by Geneviève VerdierJuly 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper assesses the stance of monetary policy in eleven Sub-Saharan African (SSA)emerging and frontier market economies. We estimate neutral real interest rates using a range ofmethodologies, and find a broadly declining trend in most economies since the Global Financial Crisis,consistent with patterns observed in advanced and major emerging market economies. We documentsignificant heterogeneity in monetary policy stances—measured by the interest rate gap—even during commonglobal shocks. We also examine the consistency between signals from the intended monetary policy stanceand broader financial conditions. To this end, we construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) and analyze theirrelationship with interest rate gaps. We find that this relationship strengthens during periods of highlyaccommodative or restrictive monetary stances, particularly in economies that have adopted or aretransitioning to inflation-targeting frameworks. Moreover, contractionary monetary shocks tighten financialconditions more in these economies than in those operating under other regimes. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, and Shant Arzoumanian. 2025.“Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emerging and Frontier Markets”, IMF WorkingPaper No. WP 25/160. Measuring Monetary Policy Stancein Sub-Saharan African Emergingand Frontier Markets Prepared by Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, and ShantArzoumanian0F1 Contents I.Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 A.Data .........................................................................................................................................................8B.Estimation methods .................................................................................................................................9C.Empirical results ....................................................................................................................................14 III.Mapping Monetary Policy Stance to Financial Conditions .................................................................... 20 A.Interest rate gaps and financial conditions indices ................................................................................20B.Monetary policy transmission to financial conditions.............................................................................22C.Estimation results ..................................................................................................................................24 IV.Conclusion.................................................................................................................................................. 30 Annex A. Additional Figures and Tables ........................................................................................................ 34 Annex B. Financial Conditions Indices for SSA............................................................................................. 41 B.1.The selected financial variables ............................................................................................................41B.2.An Index of financial conditions ............................................................................................................. 43B.3.Interpreting financial conditions indices for SSA ................................................................................... 45 References......................................................................................................................................................... 55 1. Trade-Offs Faced by SSA EFM Central Banks Amid Global Shocks ............................................................. 32 FIGURES 1. Neutral Real Interest Rates................................................................................................................