欧元化国家的货币政策传导：来自新兴欧洲的证据（英）

Monetary PolicyTransmission in Euroized Wentong Chen, Fazurin Jamaludin, Florian Misch, Alex Pienkowski,Mengxue Wang, and Zeju Zhu WP/25/177 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025SEP IMF Working Paper European Department Monetary Policy Transmission in Euroized Countries: Evidence from Emerging EuropePrepared by Wentong Chen, Fazurin Jamaludin, Florian Misch, Alex Pienkowski, Mengxue Wang, and Authorized for distribution by Jan Kees Martijn IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper studies domestic monetary policy transmission in European countries with asignificant share of lending and deposits in foreign currency, referred to as ‘euroized economies’. We find thatthe impact of domestic monetary policy shocks on both inflation and GDP diminishes with the degree ofeuroization across countries: the effects are twice as high in non-euroized countries compared to countries inour sample with the highest level of euroization. We further examine the exchange rate, credit and interest ratetransmission channels, which are typically less effective in euroized economies. We show that domestic WORKING PAPERS Monetary Policy Transmission in The Experience of Emerging European Economies Prepared by Wentong Chen, Fazurin Jamaludin, Florian Misch, AlexPienkowski, Mengxue Wang, and Zeju Zhu1 Contents 1. Introduction .....................................................................................................................................................52. Sample and Country Characteristics ............................................................................................................73. Estimation and Identification .........................................................................................................................94. Results ...........................................................................................................................................................114.1 Impact on aggregate demand and prices...............................................................................................114.2 Monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate ......................................................................134.3 Monetary policy transmission through the credit channel ......................................................................134.4 Monetary policy transmission through the interest rate channel ............................................................ 145. Conclusions...................................................................................................................................................18References .........................................................................................................................................................21Annex I. Data Appendix ....................................................................................................................................23Annex II. Methodological Details .....................................................................................................................24Annex III. Impulse response plots of each country: the baseline model.....................................................25 1. Introduction On the back of surging inflation in the post-pandemic period, there has been renewed interest inthe effects of monetary policy on output and prices. In Europe, emerging market economieshave generally faced higher inflation peaks than advanced economies. In Central Eastern andSouth-Eastern European (CESEE) countries that are not part of the euro area, part of the Euroization can impair the transmission of monetary policy transmission in at least two ways.First, the effective monetary policy stance does not only depend on domestic monetary policy,as the interest rates on euro loans and deposits are influenced by the ECB’s policy (Moder,2023). In other words, euroization directly undermines the interest, credit, cash flow, and In addition to undermining monetary policy transmission, euroization can also lead to complexmonetary policy trade-offs, at least indirectly. Given that euroization is often a prime motivationfor foreign exchange interventions, it indirectly cements a monetary policy framework where thecentral bank pursues de facto inflation and exchange rate objectives, which can create trade- There are several empirical papers that examine monetary policy transmission in euroized anddollarized economies, and emerging market economies more broadly. Some papers show that areduction in dollarization is often associated with stronger monetary policy transmission (e.g.,Acosta-Ormaechea and Coble, 2011). Bor