2025年上半年信用解决方案市场洞察报告

ContentsIn a context of intense geopolitical and macro-economic volatility, it is critical for businessesto be alert to the specific trends that may affecttheir ability to trade and access finance. Ourperiodic Market Insights Reports aim to helpclients navigate credit insurance and Suretymarket dynamics to support business objectives.Our reports also explore some of Aon's keyinitiatives around creating client value andhelping clients make better decisions.Please feel free to review some of our previousreports, issued in H1 2024 and H2 2024. NextIntroduction Welcome to our H1 2025 Market Insights Report, which examines the key developments shaping the Credit Solutions environmentduring a volatile 2025 where risks associated with trade are dominated by geo-political tensions, supply chain reassessments andtariff impacts.Global GDP is projected to decelerate to approximately 2.8 percent by 2026, driven by the tapering of fiscal stimulus, evolvingmonetary policies, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The U.S. economy is expected to slow, while the Asia-Pacific regioncontinues to lead in growth. Other regions face a range of challenges, including energy crises and political conflict. U.S. tradeprotectionism is also anticipated to significantly disrupt global supply chains, inflation, and economic performance-potentiallyreducing U.S. GDP around 1.5 percent and contributing to rising global insolvency rates. Meanwhile, artificial intelligenceremains a major focus for business leaders, with optimism around its contribution to GDP growth through productivityimprovements and investment, though outcomes will vary across sectors and regions.As outlined in Aon’s recent Client Trends 2025 report, the convergence of four powerful megatrends-Trade, Technology,Weather, and Workforce-is fueling increased complexity, volatility, and uncertainty for businesses and society. While technologyis streamlining global trade, it is also introducing new regulatory and market risks. The recent bankruptcy of Northvolt, aSwedish electric vehicle battery startup once hailed as Europe’s key contender against Asian dominance, illustrates the sector’svolatility. At the same time, climate change is destabilizing trade routes and supply chains, impacting financial performance.For example, Brazil’s AgroGalaxy entered judicial recovery following extreme weather events that damaged crop yields andweakened agricultural markets.In this context, we were delighted to welcome over 1,400 attendees joined our 2025 virtual Credit Solutions Conference to hearfrom global experts, industry leaders, and senior decision makers. Together, they explored the pressing credit issues shapingtoday’s business environment—equipping participants with the clarity and confidence needed to makeBetter Decisions forSustainable Growth.IntroductionOliver HendersonChief Broking OfficerCredit Solutions, AonPreviousContents Thank you to our sponsorsPlatinum sponsorsGold sponsors18-19 March 2025CreditSolutionsConference2025Better Decisions for Sustainable GrowthWatch our editor’s picksfrom the CreditSolutions ConferenceGrowth under turbulence Growth UnderTurbulencePreviousIntroduction ●Allianz’s data on GDP growth highlights a period of moderating and uneven global economicexpansion. Following a robust post-pandemic rebound in 2022, with global GDP rising by 3.3percent, growth is projected to decelerate, stabilizing around 2.8 percent by 2026. This trendreflects the fading impact of earlier fiscal stimulus, tighter monetary policy, and persistentgeopolitical uncertainties.●Growth trajectories vary significantly across regions. The U.S. has seen solid growth but isexpected to slow, reflecting the lagged effects of higher interest rates and waning consumerdemand. The Eurozone and UK face more pronounced headwinds, with Eurozone growth barelyabove zero in 2023 and 2024, before a modest recovery to 1.5 percent in 2026. This weaknessis attributed to the lingering impact of the energy crisis, subdued industrial activity, andstructural challenges.●Asia-Pacific remains the global growth engine, led by China and India, with the regionmaintaining strong forecasts throughout the forecast period. Latin America and Africa deliversteady, moderate gains, supported by commodity exports, though they face challenges fromglobal financial conditions and domestic vulnerabilities. Central and Eastern Europe reboundsafter a difficult 2023 as the region adjusts to the ongoing effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.●The Middle East experienced a sharp slowdown in 2023, driven by oil price volatility andproduction cuts, but is forecast to recover gradually in subsequent years.●While inflation pressures are expected to ease, structural issues such as aging populations inadvanced economies and geopolitical risks continue to shape the global economic landscape.Policymakers and businesses should prepare for persistent regional divergence and a slowerpace of global expansion.2.1 - Overall GDP trendsGDP t