8转型：从危机到机遇

8 TRANSFORMATIONS:From Crisesto Opportunities CONTENTSA science-based approach to igniting themarket for credible contentEROSION OF TRUTHACTIVATING AN ENGINE OF SHARED TRUTH:1A global moonshot to achieve anexponential leap in the removal ofatmospheric carbonATMOSPHERIC CARBONSCALING CARBON CAPTURE:2Harnessing AI in education to acceleratethe future-readiness of the workforceTECH-DRIVEN JOB DISPLACEMENTUNLEASHING EXPONENTIAL LEARNING:3Institutionalizing early detection andtreatment of chronic disease to extendhealthspanHEALTH CRISISENABLING PROACTIVE HEALTH:4A governed marketplace to bring theillicit trade of cyber vulnerabilities intothe lightCYBER WEAPONS PROLIFERATIONDISRUPTING THE CYBERSECURITY DILEMMA:5Systematic disruption of the cycle ofdehumanization and polarizationSOCIETAL POLARIZATIONRESTORING MUTUAL TRUST:6Algorithm-based research to understandand reverse mental health spiralsYOUTH PSYCHOLOGICAL WELL-BEINGREPAIRING THE PSYCHOLOGICAL WELL-BEINGOF CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS:7Work for impact to instill a sense ofmeaningCRISIS OF MEANING AND PURPOSEBUILDING PATHWAYS OF PURPOSE:8 07223853698498114 3 INTRODUCTIONAfter years of increasing globalvolatility and deepening uncertainty,we have now entered a period ofintersecting crises and intensifyingchallenges across the span ofgeopolitical, environmental, economic,and social domains. We are witnessingactive conflict in multiple regions;record debt levels amidst elevatedinterest rates; and the increasinglycostly effects of climate change.As a result, the international order, the globaleconomy, and our public institutions are undertremendous pressure. For many countries, thispressure has profound political consequences, asmeeting citizen needs is likely to be morechallenging over the coming year. Governmentswill have less discretionary fiscal space preciselywhen they will need it most. Compounding thechallenge in these countries is that governmentaction is significantly impaired by politicalpolarization.The gap between the scale of our challenges andthe capacity of our institutions to address themcreates another peril – one that is arguably moresignificant than any of them: the grave risk ofindividual citizens giving up on the very possibilityof positive change. At the core of this threat is adiminished confidence in collective action amongcitizens at the local and national level, and amongcountries at the multilateral level. All too oftenthroughout history and around the world, suchbreakdowns in our confidence in collective agencyhave led to economic crises, episodes of societalbreakdown, and wars. 4 However, history also makes clear that it isprecisely at such junctures that transformativechange becomes most possible, and that the keyis not the avoidance of challenges but theirtransformation into watershed moments ofshared advancement.This paper identifies eight strategic challengesand crises facing government leaders around theworld, and outlines pathways by which theseproblems can be turned into opportunities fortransformation.These transformations were selected based on ananalysis of the components of the “polycrisis” weface and the macro-level trends shaping theglobal environment. From these dynamics, weidentified a set of challenges for which genuinetransformation is most likely to be feasible at thenational and multilateral levels for a wide range ofcountries. 5 6We have not sought to develop a comprehensivepackage of policy interventions to address allaspects of each challenge, but rather to identifyspecific paths forward that in various waysharness the forces that are contributing to thechallenge to generate its transformation. Eachchapter examines a specific challenge; identifies apotential pathway to solving it; surveys theobstacles to that solution; and proposes atransformation – i.e., an approach to using thecausal machinery of the challenge itself to createa self-sustaining path to progress.By directly taking on the causal structure of thechallenges facing their citizens – and by enlistingthose citizens in transforming the challenges intoopportunities – government leaders can unleashthe vast power of human agency that is currentlyblocked in so much of the world by resignation,despair, and civic disengagement, creating newsolution-centered renaissances in theircommunities, countries, and indeed the world.Each of the chapters that follow are intended toserve as blueprints for doing precisely that.HUMANAGENCY”“By directly taking on thecausal structure of thechallenges facing theircitizens - and by enlistingthose citizens intransforming the challengesinto opportunities -government leaders canunleash the vast power of EROSIONOF TRUTHACTIVATING AN ENGINE OFSHARED TRUTH:A science-based approach to ignitingthe market for credible content THE CHALLENGEA vicious cycle ofmisinformation and biasThe foundation of shared truth on which oursocieties rely is eroding. Misinformation isproliferating at unprecedented rates,compromising our collective ab