瑞穗日报

Days to reciprocal tariffs:10FXClose (NY)USDJPY147.38EURUSD1.1694GBPUSD1.3493AUDUSD0.6525DXY97.9USDCNY7.1694USDCNH7.1710USDHKD7.8498USDSGD1.2806USDKRW1383USDTWD29.41USDINR86.30USDIDR16311USDMYR4.235USDPHP57.16USDTHB32.36USDVND26154*Open is as at 8am HKT/SGT.147.42FX OUTLOOK------1.16951.34891382--7.8496261550.65284.2351.28067.1711--32.22---EURmovedabovemid-1.16levels.-Elsewhere,USD/SGDmovedlowertoaround1.28handlelevels.China: Unchanged-China'sLoanPrimeRatesremainunchangedinJuly.Julytypicallyseesaseasonal lull in government bond issuance,making a major easingmovebyPBoC,suchasaRRRorinterestratecut,unlikelyinthecomingweeks.Notably,PBoCofficialshaveemphasizedtheyarestillassessingthefullimpactofMay'seasingmeasures.-DespiteQ2'sGDPoutrun,wemaintainour2025GDPforecastat4.8%YoY,withgrowthexpectedtoslowto4.4%YoYinH2duetofadingfront-loadedexportsinQ3andahighbaseinQ4.Fiscalsupportislikelytoincreaseamidongoingtradeuncertaintyandasluggishpropertyrecovery.TheplannedRMB2.3tninspecialgovernmentbondsforH2,alongsideRMB2.1tn issued in H1,should support fixed asset investment amidcurrentheadwinds.Weexpecttwomorebenchmarkratecutsthisyear,with10bpinQ3and20bpinQ4.South Korea Q2 GDP: Recession Risks-WeexpectKorea'sQ2GDPtoremainweakandekedoutamarginal0.2%YoY growth implying a 0.2%QoQ expansion from Q1's 0.2contraction.-Thatsaid,avertingatechnicalrecessionisfarfromagivenasgrowthrisksskew towards the downside as various indicators depict a weakgrowthpicture.-Industrialproductioncontracted0.4%overAprilandMayrelativetoQ1onaseasonallyadjustedbasis.AsidefromslippageinproductionofsemiconductorsfromtheMarchpeak,electricalequipmentoutputisalsodecliningamid deteriorating demand for batteries and domesticapplianceandmotors.Motorvehiclesandfabricatedmetalsoutputalsocontracted.Themetals-motors-vehiclesweaknesspointtoadverseeffectsstemmingfromUStariffsonautos.-Onthedomesticconsumptionfront,realretailsalesalsoremainweakonsubdueddemandfornon-durableandsemi-durables.Specificallyfornon-durables,onayearagobasis,realspendingonfood,cosmetics,booksand fuel fell,the only category which saw an expansion waspharmaceuticals.Forsemi-durables,consumersalsocutbackonsports,entertainment,footwearandclothing.-Notably,for durables,spending on automobiles increase amidgovernmentefforts such as tax reductions for new car purchases.Nonetheless,giventheweakindustrialoutput,itisclearthatthedeclineinexportdemandforautosoverwhelms.-The construction sector also remains in the doldrums as workcompletedcontracted5.5%onaverageoverAprilandMayrelativetoQ1.-All in,given our expectations of a marginal growth expansion,recessionrisksliewell-withinestablishedconfidencebandsratherthanfallintotheusualremotetailcategorisation. (Temporary delay extended to 31 July)Daily %Δ▼0.96%145.50-+0.58%1.1600-+0.57%1.3380-+0.25%0.6460-▼0.64%97.2-▼0.07%7.1500-▼0.14%7.1400-+0.03%7.8300-▼0.37%1.2740-+0.00%1370-+0.06%29.20+0.16%85.70-+0.13%16200-▼0.21%4.200-▼0.03%56.70-▼0.06%31.9-▼0.00%26100-ForecastOpen* ActualExp.Prior3.00%/3.50%3.00%/3.50%3.00%/3.50%-0.3%-0.3%0.0%ActualExp.Prior0.5%--0.3%1.2%1.2%23.2%18.5%3.3%3.3%-2-7 149.001.18001.36200.657098.67.19007.19007.85001.2920139529.6086.80164504.25057.6032.526250 RESEARCHTEAMVishnu Varathan | Serena Zhou | Tan Boon Heng | Tan Jing Yi MARKET COMMENTARY DISCLAIMERTHIS DOCUMENT IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS SUCH.Unless stated otherwise in the country specific distribution information below, this document has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements in anycountry or jurisdiction designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition ondealing ahead of the dissemination ofinvestment research. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not purport to make any investment recommendations.This document has been prepared solely for the information of the intended recipients. Recipients in any jurisdiction shouldcontact your usual Mizuho contact in relationto any matters arising from, or in connection, with this document.This document has been prepared by Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Singapore Branch (“MBSG”), a full bank, exempt capital markets services entity and exempt financial adviserregulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”), Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Hong Kong Branch (“MBHK”), a licensed bank regulated by the Hong Kong MonetaryAuthority, with business address at 12/F, K11 Atelier, 18 Salisbury Road, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Mizuho Bank, Ltd.,Sydney Branch, an authorised deposit-taking institution regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and holder of an Australian financial serviceslicence (“MBAU”), Mizuho Securities AsiaLimited (“MHSA”), licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and/or Mizuho Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.(“MHSS”), a holder of acapital markets services licence and an exempt financial adviser regulated by the MAS, as the case may be.This does not constitute investment or personal advice.This