越南的转型路径：到2050年实现碳中和的技术与创新

Viet Nam’s Transition Pathways: Technology and Innovation for Carbon Neutrality by2050Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)Sentral Senayan II 6th FloorJalan Asia Afrika No. 8, Gelora Bung KarnoSenayan, Jakarta Pusat 12710Indonesia© Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, 2025ERIA Research Project Report FY2025. No. 12Published in July 2025All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievalsystem, or transmitted in any form by any means electronic or mechanical without priorwritten notice to and permission from ERIA.The findings, interpretations, conclusions, and views expressed in their respectivechapters are entirely those of the author/s and do not reflect the views and policies of theEconomic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, its Governing Board, AcademicAdvisory Council or the institutions and governments they represent. Any error in contentor citation in the respective chapters is the sole responsibility of the authors.Materialin this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted with properacknowledgement. iiiAcknowledgementsThisstudy is the result of collaborative efforts amongst institutions and expertssupporting Asia’s energy transition toward sustainable future. We would like to expressour sincere gratitude to the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), for their technicalleadership and modelling expertise on carbon neutral scenario analysis. Special thanksgo to Mr Nobuo Tanaka, CEO of Tanaka Global Inc. and Executive Director Emeritus of theInternational Energy Agency (IEA), and Dr Fengjun Duan, Senior Research Fellow at theCanon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS), for their strategic insights and continuedguidance on in-depth nuclear energy analysis.We also acknowledge the valuable input from Vietnamese stakeholders including theCentral Policy and Strategy Commission (CPSC) and the Ho Chi Minh National Academy ofPolitics (HCMA) whose policy perspectives were essential in shaping this study. Thesupport from the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) providedthe institutional foundation and regional policy relevance necessary to address Viet Nam’sLastly, we thank all contributors who participated in the review process and providedfeedback to improve the rigour and relevance of this report. Their collaboration anddedication have been instrumental in advancing the shared vision of a low-carbon, secure,and economically vibrant energy future for Viet Nam. complex energy challenges. ivList of Project MembersPart 1: Carbon Neutral Scenario AnalysisInstitute of Energy Economics, JapanSoichi Morimoto, Senior Researcher, Climate Change and Energy Efficiency UnitSeiya Endo, Senior Economist, Energy Data and Modelling CenterRino Hirose, Economist, Energy Data and Modelling CenterHideaki Obane, Senior Economist, Energy Data and Modelling CenterKei Shimogori, Senior Researcher, Energy Security UnitAtsutaka Yamada, Researcher, Climate Change and Energy Efficiency UnitYu Nagatomi, Manager, Energy Data and Modelling CenterIchiro Kutani, Director, Energy Security UnitToshiyuki Sakamoto, Director, Climate Change and Energy Efficiency UnitEconomic Research Institute for ASEAN and East AsiaKentaro Noma, Programme Manager on EnergyDaisuke Kiuchi, Chief Programme Manager on EnergyHan Phoumin, Senior Energy EconomistPart 2: Potential Utilisation of Nuclear Power in Viet NamNobuo Tanaka, CEO, Tanaka Global, Inc. / Executive Director Emeritus, The InternationalFengjun Duan, Senior Research Fellow, The Canon Institute for Global StudiesEconomic Research Institute for ASEAN and East AsiaKentaro Noma, Programme Manager on EnergyDaisuke Kiuchi, Chief Programme Manager on EnergyHan Phoumin, Senior Energy Economist Energy Agency vContentsList of Project MembersPart 1: Carbon-neutral Scenario AnalysisAnalytical FrameworkPart 2: Potential Utilisation of Nuclear Power in Viet NamGlobal Energy and Climate CrisesThe Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy: A ReviewSustainable Nuclear PowerSmall Modular Reactors as Sustainable NuclearSecure Supply ChainsPlanning Human Resources and RegulationCommitment of a Political LeaderAn Optional Approach to Utilising Nuclear Energy in VietNam: Technology Selection and Strategic Implementation AcknowledgementsiiiivList of FiguresviList of TablesxIntroductionxi2Results22Key Implications35395066Technology Models7679818588References104Appendix108 Chapter 1Chapter 2Chapter 3Chapter 4Chapter 5Chapter 6Chapter 7Chapter 8Chapter 9Chapter 10Chapter 11 viList of FiguresModelled Energy SystemData Availability for Modelled End-use SectorsEnergy-related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Constraints in theCarbon-neutral and Carbon-neutral with High Economic GrowthFossil Fuel PricesSchematic Design of Geographic Information Systems DataEstimated Upper Limit of Solar and Wind Energy CapacityCapacity Factors of Offshore WindAssumed Coal-fired Power CapacityPotential Site and Assumed Upper Limit of Nuclear Pow