美国信用阿尔法：走钢丝

Restricted - External BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, USDominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US US Investment GradeTight spreads are back, back again. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24With the index trading back near February's tights, we discuss how relationships look nowversus then. We highlight opportunities in flat BBB 10s30s, flat Euro Yankee bank 5s10s,cyclicals, and hybrids.US High Yield and Leveraged LoansYield-seeking swaps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31With valuations stretched across HY and loans, yield pick-up remains focal. Curve-adjusted loanyields look favorable versus bonds. We provide a basket of 12 swaps out of single-B securedbonds into term loans, picking up 150bp of curve-adjusted yield on average.US Credit Derivatives and MacroBuy HYG and short CDX.HY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37We recommend buying HYG and buying CDX.HY protection to position for a reversal of therecent underperformance of HYG spreads. We think thatdifferencesin NAV premiums andinvestor positioning should support the trade.US Hybrid CapitalEarn single-B yield with IG risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Single-B yields are below 7%, the lowest since April 2022. Investors can rotate out of single-Bsinto hybrids from investment grade issuers with lower beta while picking up yield. We provide along hybrids basket and a short single-B basket to express this view. 2 US Credit AlphaUPDATE: OverviewCredit spreads remain tight amid strong technicals and solidfundamentals, though macro momentum is slipping. Slowergrowth, sticky inflation, andtariffuncertainty may weigh onsentiment. We expect spreads to stay tight in the near term,but see modest widening into year-end.UPDATE This publication is an update to 'US Credit Alpha: Overview', originally published on 11Jul 2025 at 06:30 EDT to correct a typo in our 2025 high yield spread target.The tightrope walkCredit markets are leaving little room for error.Spreads are very tight, and our ComplacencySignal is creeping up. That said, fundamentals remain solid, and technicals are very supportive.Still, seasonals are becoming less favorable, and we expect the macro backdrop tosoften.Webelieve spreads will remain tight in the short term, but continue to forecast 95-100bp forinvestment grade and 325-350bp for high yield by YE25.The macro momentum is slipping.Afterseveral months of consistent upside surprises, hardeconomic data are now starting to surprise to the downside for the first time since last October,driven mostly by thesoftservices spending in the most recent PCE data. Furthermore, wecontinue to expect inflation to rise astariffcosts are passed through to consumers whileeconomic growth slows. Inflation pressure leads us to believe that the Fed will cut only once thisyear, in December, and this week's minutes didn’t change our mind (see June FOMC minutes:Two step forward, some step back).ThetariffD-day has been deferred, but risk remains.The much-anticipatedtariff“D-day”was more noise than action. While the administration has issued letters and floated proposals,most measures have been delayed until August 1, with few executive orders signed. Marketshave largely looked through the rhetoric, but the risk of escalation remains, as illustrated byBrazil and copper. For credit, the key concern is whethertariffswill begin to weigh on margins inthe second half, particularly for global manufacturers and retailers. Broadly, IG non-financialmargins have significant cushion.OBBB: quietly constructive.The recently passed tax and budget bill has been a relative brightspot for credit, even though it will lead to higher US deficits. The legislation allows for morecapex, R&D, and interest tax deductions, which are all positive for corporates, even though itmight mean more issuance in the medium term.Earnings season kickingoffwith low expectations.The 2Q earnings season kicksoffnextweek with banks, and expectations have been reset lower. EPS and sales growth are bothexpected to slow meaningfully from 1Q’s strong prints, reflectingsoftermacro data andtariff-relateduncertainty as shown in Figure 2. However, consensus still expects a re-acceleration in3Q. All together, the bar for positive surprises is lower, and guidance will be key.14 July 2025 BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, USDominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 2. Expectations for 2Q25 sales and earnings growth are lowLast WeekClose4-WeekAverage7783495397.0996.34107.94106.99Note: Expectation for SP500 companies ex Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, MSFT,and NvidiaSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research.Technicals remain supportive and should limit how how far spreads can widen. Seeminglyinsatiable demand for credit pushed spreads clos