美国信用阿尔法：信用领域不存在“风险管理”

No "risk management" in credit We discuss the potential for the SEC to change earningsreporting frequency, highlight our best ideas acrossinvestment grade and high yield, examine opportunities infront-end BBBs, and analyze rate cuteffectson loans andCLOs. BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, US Dominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US US Credit Alpha Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 This week's "risk-management cut" did little to disturb market sentiment. Credit remainsunshaken, bolstered by persistent technical strength. With the market seemingly range-boundat tight levels, identifying areas of dispersion and catalyst-driven opportunities remains key. US Focus Public Policy: What's Old Is New. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Echoing his comments from 2018, President Trump says the SEC should allow US publiccompanies to report on a semiannual rather than quarterly frequency. While not our base case,the SEC could implement this change quickly for Q3 2025 earnings. We explain how. US Focus Credit: Is Two or Four Just a Number? Quarterly Reporting andConsiderations for Credit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 President Trump's suggestion for the SEC to allow semiannual reporting echoes his commentsfrom 2018, and Barclays' public policy analyst sees a higher probability of implementation thistime. For credit investors, the potential change raises some interesting questions. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. US Investment Grade Taking advantage of BBB dispersion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Spreads in IG may have further room to run given strong sentiment, the macro picture, andtechnicals. Dispersion has picked up in BBBs, most notably in the front end. We highlightopportunities in front-end BBBs in particularly dispersed sectors. US High Yield Best Ideas: It Could Be Worse. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Key points: 1) While the market is tight, there is an ample opportunity set; 2) We outline 15Overweights/longs, 12 Underweights/shorts, three swaps, four term loan trade ideas, and oneCDS idea; 3) Credit Strategy provides updated bond and loan market thoughts. US Leveraged Loans & CLOs What a Rate Cut Means for Loans and CLOs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 With a resumed cutting cycle likely imminent, the risk of demand deterioration has risen forfloating rate segments of US credit. However, we believe that a steady decline in base ratesshould have a mutedeffecton loans and CLOs, as technicals should remain robust whilefundamentals improve. US Credit Alpha Overview This week's "risk-management cut" did little to disturbmarket sentiment. Credit remains unshaken, bolstered bypersistent technical strength. With the market seeminglyrange-bound at tight levels, identifying areas of dispersionand catalyst-driven opportunities remains key. BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, US Dominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US No "risk management" in credit Rate cuts resume.As expected, the FOMC delivered a 25bp cut this week. The new SEP revisedreal GDP projections higher through 2027, lowered unemployment rate projections for 2026 and2027, and increased 2026 inflation forecasts (see September FOMC: Awkward projections).However, despite the stronger outlook, the dot plot shows a lower rate path than projected inJune. Moreover, Chair Powell's characterization of the rate cut as a "risk-management cut"emphasized that weakening labor market conditions, including the 12m revision of 911k tononfarm payroll employment, has become a key downside risk for FOMC members. With theforward econ calendar fairly muted between now and the end of the month, we expect themarket to turn its focus towards the government shutdown deadline (Tuesday, September 30)and the next nonfarm payroll print (Friday, October 3). Bank earnings start October 14. Markets expressed a mixed reaction to the FOMC