原油周度报告

SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesCONTENTS宏观02原油：多单持有，三季度或仍有机会挑战80美元利率、贵金属与油价走势比较海外服务业数据中国信用数据 价格及价差基差月差内外盘原油价差净持仓变化 供应OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览美国页岩油产量 需求欧美炼厂开工率中国炼厂开工率 库存美欧各类油品库存亚太各类油品库存 综述 2 观点综述01 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures美债长端利率大幅波动，金油比反弹资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究-2-101234WTI美国:国债收益率:10年-1年（右轴）02040608010012014016070758085909510010511011512013-1014-0314-0815-0115-0615-1116-0416-0917-0217-0717-1218-0518-1019-0319-0820-0120-0620-1121-0421-0922-0222-0722-1223-0523-1024-0324-0825-0125-06European Crude Dated Brent Spot美元指数（右轴）0102030405060 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国月度出口量一览2021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-102025-012025-04原油:产量(基于直接来源):阿尔及利亚:当月值0204060801001202020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-102025-012025-04原油:产量(基于直接来源):赤道几内亚:当月值05001000150020002500300035004000450050002020-102021-02原油:产量(基于直接来源):伊拉克:当月值2021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-062023-102024-022024-062024-102025-022025-06原油:产量(基于直接来源):尼日利亚:当月值0200040006000800010000120002020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-102025-012025-04原油:产量(基于直接来源):沙特阿拉伯:当月值05001000150020002500300035002020-102021-012021-04原油:产量(基于直接来源):阿联酋:当月值资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国周度出口量一览（含预测值)2024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W322025-W352025-W38哈萨克斯坦原油出口0500010000150002000025000300002024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W12Kb020004000600080001000012000140002024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W322025-W352025-W38Kb利比亚原油出口2024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W322025-W352025-W38加蓬原油出口0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W322025-W352025-W38Kb尼日利亚原油出口0200040006000800010000120002024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W12Kb资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国周度出口量一览（含预测值)2024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W322025-W352025-W38阿尔及利亚+刚果共和国+赤道几内亚情况2024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W322025-W352025-W38巴西原油出口0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002024-W032024-W052024-W072024-W092024-W112024-W132024-W152024-W172024-W192024-W212024-W232024-W252024-W272024-W292024-W312024-W332024-W352024-W372024-W392024-W412024-W432024-W452024-W472024-W49KbOPEC+(excluding Brazil)资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures非OPEC+周度出口量一览（含预测值)2024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W322025-W352025-W38加拿大原油出口0100002000030000400005000060000700002024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W26Kb美国原油出口2024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W322025-W352025-W38挪威原油出口010002000300040005000600070002024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W26Kb圭亚那原油出口资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures美欧开工率处季节性高位，中国主营炼厂开工率企稳，地炼开工率回升资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究第9周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周第49周第51周美国炼厂开工率2021202220232024202564666870727476788082848675080085090095010001050%万吨主营炼厂原油周度加工量（区域）:中国主营炼厂原油周度产能利用率（区域）:中国01002003004005006002022/2/102023/2/102024/2/10独立炼厂原油周度加工量（区域）:中国独立炼厂原油周度产能利用率（区域）:中国 库存05 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures美国商业库