宏观、市场与技术：CFO与企业指南

Deutsche BankResearchMarion Laboure / Camilla Siazon / Luke Templeman / Adrian Cox / Jim ReidTable of contents: Macro, Markets & TechA guide for CFOs & Corporates1.Forecasts2.Macroeconomics❑Key risks for the economy❑Economic growth❑Central bank interest rates❑CBDCs and stablecoin outlook3.Markets❑Foreign Exchange❑Funding❑Commodities4.Geopolitics❑Trade War❑Spotlight on critical minerals andsemiconductors❑Defence spending❑Effect on capital and investment5.Artificial intelligence❑China vs. US innovation❑AI still in a capex boom TheviewsinthispublicationareinformedbyDeutscheBank’sGlobalStrategyGroup,which advises management and clients on broadmarketrisks and global economic and financial developments.Theviewsandforecastsofthegroup,whichconsistsofseniorresearchstaff,mayoccasionally differ from those disseminated by their researchcolleagues 01.Forecasts 02.Macroeconomics Deutsche BankResearchMarion Laboure / Camilla Siazon / Luke Templeman / Adrian Cox / Jim ReidSUMMARY: Trade de-escalation has led us to cautiously upgrade our forecasts for US &European growth; tariff risks remain1.Macroeconomic environment remains highly fluid, withfrequent policy shifts posing challenges to forecasting❑US growth revised to 1.6% in 2025, lower than our Marchquarterly (2.6%) but higher than Liberation Day forecasts (1.3%).A US recession is likely to be avoided, although reputationaldamage could damage US ability to finance its twin deficits.❑Europe’s growth also upgraded to 0.8% in 2025.Economicmomentum improved due to easing inflationary pressures anddefence/infrastructure measures. Germany’s growth isexpected to reach 1.5% in 2026 after years of stagnation.2. Most central banks to continue cutting in 2025❑Fed's terminal rate at 3.625% in 2026; 25bps cut in Dec.❑ECB terminal rate 1.5% end-2025; 25bps cut in Sep & Dec.3. Three key risks for the global economy❑Tariffs❑Geopolitical conflicts❑Debt sustainability4. The global rise of digital currencies❑Stablecoins are gaining prominence. Last week, the US Senatepassed the GENIUS Act; the legislation could reach PresidentTrump’s desk by August.❑We expect the Eurozone to launch itsdigital euro2030 earliest.❑Bitcoinreached a new high in May amidst market uncertaintyand tariff volatility.Timeline of latest tariff developmentsSource: Deutsche Bank Research, NYT, Bloomberg, WSJ, FT. 6 Deutsche BankResearch2025 Global growthThe Limitations of Liberation…ViewGlobal growth: 3.0% in 2025and 3.1% in 2026.USGrowth to slow in H2 butremain resilient, avoidingrecession.EU2025 GDP 0.8% in 2025;1.0% in 2026; 1.5% in 2027.H2-2025 to feel tariff drag.From 2026,defence/infrastructure toboost growth.China2025 GDP at 4.8% on mildertrade tensions.EMNear-term outlook clouded bynegative growth/trade shockfrom US tariffs, but growthshould find support fromimproved fiscal impulse inChina and Europe, and thepositive supply shock fromlower energy prices. Marion Laboure / Camilla Siazon / Luke Templeman / Adrian Cox / Jim ReidRationale❑Recent de-escalatory trade talks have led to❑2025 GDP 1.6%, supported by trade de-escalation❑Labor market softening; unemployment to hit 4.3%❑Tariffs could lift inflation this year. Core PCE inflation❑Assumes an average of 10% tariffs from the US, hits❑Large fiscal impulse from defence (+ReArmEurope❑Front-loaded monetary easing and fiscal spending to❑A budget revision may become necessary in H2 to❑Trade competitiveness should support a stronger❑Asia: Positive NIIPs and undervalued exchange rates,❑LatAm: Easing cycle has resumed in some places,❑CEEMEA: A heterogenous mix, global trade and Deutsche BankResearchMarion Laboure / Camilla Siazon / Luke Templeman / Adrian Cox / Jim Reid3 key risks for the global economyEscalating tariffs, geopolitics & increased debt sustainability are in the spotlight1.A global trade war❑New US tariff rate still the highest in decades (~15%-17%).❑Companies are accelerating their reshoring initiatives whilstshortages in defense and auto sectors are beginning to show.2. Geopolitical conflict❑Further Iran-Israel escalation remains a key focus, with potential forIran to weaponize oil and close the Strait of Hormuz.❑Critical minerals & chipsincreasingly utilized as strategic tools intrade disputes, particularly in US-China relations.❑Increased defense spending amidst ongoing geopolitical conflict(Ukraine, Taiwan).3.Debt sustainability❑US ability to fund its twin deficits is facing increased scrutiny,raising risks for a global growth slowdown. Deficits >6.5% between2026–2028.❑8 countries are under the EU deficit procedure as of February 2025.0%50%100%150%200%250%300%194019501960197019801990USUKGermanyFranceItalySource: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics, FRED, IMF.Central government debt (%) of GDP Trade policy uncertainty has spiked to record high levelsSource:Caldara et. Al (2020), Baker, Bloom and Davis at www.PolicyUncertainty.com, DeutscheBank Research.200020102020JapanChina0100200300400500600700800900100011001200606366697275788184879093969