首席财务官与企业指南：宏观、市场与科技

Macro, Markets& Tech A guide for CFOs and Corporates November 2025 Marion LaboureCamilla SiazonLuke TemplemanAdrian CoxJim Reid Introduction: Macro, Markets & TechA guide for CFOs & Corporates ForcorporateclientswhodonotsubscribetoourresearchyoucanviewthereportMacro, We'repleased to share our latest Guide for CFOs and Corporates,providing essentialinsightsintomacroeconomics,marketsandtechnology.Thisreportofferscriticalanalysis Key highlights: ❑Macroeconomic outlook:Global growth projections, central bank policies, key risks, andtakeaways from the ongoing tariff uncertainty and heightened geopolitical conflictsacross Europe and the Middle East; including a table with our latest 2026 DB forecasts ❑Market analysis:FX; funding costs; and commodity market risks and managementstrategies. ❑Geopolitics:Ongoing conflicts across Europe, Asia and the Middle East; how marketsmay be underestimating areas ripe for geopolitical flashpoints; strategic issues of ❑The future of monetary policy:Updates on central bank policy rates and the rise of ❑Artificial Intelligence:US vs China tech competition, corporate outlook on AI adoptionand AI disruption in the workplace. ***We value your feedback and are eager to make future editions even more helpful. Pleaseemail us any suggestions for topics or areas you'd like to see covered in the next release.*** 01.Forecasts DB 2026 forecasts 02.Macroeconomics 2026 Global growthResilient outlook despite trade and policy uncertainty 3 key risks for the global economyTariff, geopolitics and debt sustainability remain major headwinds 3.Debt sustainability 1.Tariffs 2. Geopolitical conflict ❑US deficits >6.5% of GDP under Trump; risingyields complicate financing. ❑Russia-Ukraine, Taiwan, Venezuela, and Middle Easttensions raise fears of broader market impact. ❑US tariff rate still 15%-17%, the highest indecades. ❑France’s political crisis makes it difficult to ❑Tariff effects are still filtering through;semiconductor and pharma tariffs pending; US- ❑Amidst instability, 71% of corporates are reorganizingsupply chains; only 21% expect no impact. Central banksFed to continue easing; ECB terminal rate likely reached 1.Fed 1.BoE ❑25bps cut in Dec, bringing Fed Funds rate to 3.50-3.75%. ❑QT to end Dec 1. ❑25bps cut in Dec, rate to 3.25% by Q2 2026. 2.BoJ ❑25bps hikes in Jan and Jul 2026, reaching 1.25% by Jan 2027. 2.ECB ❑Terminal rate reached at 2.0%; no further cuts in 2025.❑25bp hike expected end-2026. 1.PBoC ❑10bps cut in Sep, terminal rate 1.30% end-2025 The future of payments US-led stablecoin growth could reshape global financial system USleadership(formorereadhere). ❑GENIUS Act (July) positions the US to lead global stablecoinadoption.❑99% of market cap is USD pegged, backed mainly by US Treasuries.❑Global stablecoin market cap projected to exceed $2trn by 2028,driven by EM uptake of USD stablecoins replacing local deposits Internationalresponses ❑BoE aims to have new stablecoin regulations in place end-2026;digital pound continuing to make progress. ❑China urged tech firms to pause stablecoin issuance in Hong Kong.❑Europe:MICA excludes Tether as non-compliant; 9 European banks Read:How the GENIUS Act Strengthens US Geopolitical Dominance 03.Markets Foreign exchange marketsStay dollar bearish despite trade de-escalation and some inflow back to US assets Drivers of dollar weakness ❑Negativedemand(tariffs)andsupply(immigration)shocksintheUS.❑PoliticalpressureforFedratecuts.❑InvestorhedgingshiftsdrivingFXflows. Currencyoutlook ❑EUR/USD:Heading to 1.20 Dec 25,supported by Germany’s fiscalstimulusandEurozonegrowthrecovery(1.2%in2025). ❑USD/JPY:Neutral since Sanae Takaichi’s surprise win.Medium-termforecastslookforyentostrengthen,butpathforwardsisunclear,andinterventionunlikely,unlessUSD/JPYrisesabove157.Basecaseis135by ❑CNY:Currentlyundervalued;thegovernment'santi-involutiondriveshouldaccommodateastrongercurrencytofavourconsumption,andanexcess Implications ❑CorporatesshouldminimizeFXuncertaintytoprotectfirmvaluationandhedgeagainstFXrisks. Read:FX Blog: Japan's politics throws up a surprise-turning neutral USD/JPY-Deutsche BankResearch,FX Blueprint: Friends-Deutsche Bank Research Rates & credit marketsWe maintain our short duration view in US and EUR rates Rates:Bearishdurationoutlook ❑Long5y5yUSCPI:2.60%target.Attractivevaluations;inflationforwardsremainlowvsnominaltermpremia.❑3.0%shortbundtradesupportedbyGermanfiscalstimulus.❑BTP/OAT tightener:France political conditions conducive to maintaining ❑Bearishdurationdueto: ❑RisingUSdeficits,givenaneventualresolutiontotheUSgovshutdown,andtradetruces+tariffexemptionsaregeneratinglesstariffrevenue.❑LimitedcreditspilloverfromUSregionalbanks;Frencheconomymore Credit:YE:€HY330bps,$HYat360bps.€IGat92bps,$IGat98bps ❑Tighterspreadsdespitemacrorisks;lackoffurthercentralbankcutsmayleadtoeventualmaterialgrowthweaknessorhigherinflation.❑Preference for€-credit over$-credit as ECB cuts are improving in