北美有线、卫星及电信服务行业2Q25业绩预览

Earnings PreviewNorth America Cable, Satellite & TelecomServicesNEUTRALUnchangedNorth America Cable, Satellite &Telecom ServicesKannan Venkateshwar+1 212528 7054kannan.venkat@barclays.comBCI, USLauren Bonham+12125263856lauren.bonham@barclays.comBCI, USViren Uchil+1 (212) 526 7523viren.uchil@barclays.comBCI, US Margins: Across both cable and telecom companies, the growing debate is likely to be aboutmargins if companies continue to insist on delivering on net adds across wireless and wireline.Comcast has already talked down margins for the year and has in fact indicated difficulty ingrowing cable EBITDA for the rest of the year. Charter has also pointed to tougher cost comps inthe second half of the year. In fact, every major cable company is now ex growth except Charter(Comcast, Cox, and Altice all have negative EBITDA growth) and even Charter's EBITDA growth isjust ~0.3% for 2025E despite video margins improving and wireless now being profitable, whichimplies that underlying broadband margins have likely gone backwards. TMUS has alreadybeen missing margin expectations and the company's latest guide in effect incorporates lowermargins than the company guided to previously at its latest investor day last year (please see T-Mobile US Inc.: Risk profile starting to change, 12 Jun 2025, for more details). VZ has not growndollar EBITDA or margins materially since 2018 at a consolidated level and margins in itswhere they was 5 years ago. AT&T has held margins steady over this period in wireless andconsumer wireline despite higher net add volume (which comes with corresponding SACincreases) due to both better pricing and lower churn. However, AT&T margins also benefitedmorefromhandsetaccountingpoliciesvsTMUs.ifindustryvolumescomedownaschurnincreases and upgrade rates go up, the combination will likely be a headwind for margins acrossthe sector. Both cple and telecom tend to be fixed-cost, high SAC businesses on theconnectivity sile and therefore pressure on volumes tends to come with associated marginhead@inds in both industries and this year, both industries appear to be exposed to thisnamic.Tax: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (2025 reconciliation law) amends some of the provisionsunder current tax laws, which could potentially have a material impact on cash taxes for sometelecom and could provide some short-term valuation support as a result. The biggestnormalized benefit (as a proportion of free cash) is likely to accrue to Charter (please see NorthAmerica Media, Cable & Telecom: Implications of the 2025 tax bill, 30 Jun 2025) although allnames in the sector should see substantial benefits (Figure 2 & 3). AT&T announced? that thebill's tax advantages will accelerate fiber deployment to an additional 1mm homes annuallybeginning in 2026, and an updated long-term financial outlook and capital allocation plan areexpected with earnings.2 https://about.att.com/story/2025/accelerating-fiber-network-expansion-one-big-beautiful-bill-act.html2 TMus: is uniquely exposed to this given that its growth expectations are the highest and thecompany trades at a high multiple on these elevated expectations, partly, we think, because ofthe stock being a consensus long. We have also been flagging growing TMuS-specific risks inrecent months (please see T-Mobile US Inc.: Risk profile starting to change, 12 Jun 2026), whichis partly a function of the company's volume-driven growth algorithm in an industry that issaturated. There are of course good reasons for TMuS to lead the industry overall in terms ofvolumes (low share in rural, enterprise and business for instance) but the anchor for the ~3mmnet add expectation/guidance for this year is an unusually healthy growth environment, whichmay be shiftingThis may result in more reliance on its balance sheet to sustain its growth momentum,something we have already started to see. TMUS is expected to raise its revenue and EBITDAgrowth expectations this quarter and through the rest of the year on account of its dealpipeline. Since T-Mobile provided long-term guidance late last year, the company has closed onthe acquisition of digital advertising companies Blis and Vistar3, and on the JV to acquireLumos4. The company is further expected to close on its acquisition of Us Cellular's wirelessoperations5 and on a JV to acquire Metronet this year. The consolidated impact of theseacquisitions could help increase service revenue and EBITDA guidance each of the next threeterm guidance? 29 May 2025). In our view, given the gap in its fiber build plans vs peers, thecompany is likely to expand its investments beyond what management has presentlyarticulated. This means the company will need to lean more on its balance sheet both forinorganic and organic investments and this will likely be a growing focus in the coming quarters.3 https://www.t-mobile.com/news/business/t-mobile-advertising-acquires-blis-and-closes-vistar-media+ https://www.t-mobile.com/news/business/t-mobile-eqt-close-lumos-fiber-jv5 htt