您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[招银国际]:第二季度盈利强化AI基础设施支出势头 - 发现报告

第二季度盈利强化AI基础设施支出势头

2025-07-17Lily Yang、Kevin Zhang、Jiahao Jiang招银国际庄***
第二季度盈利强化AI基础设施支出势头

growthin2Q/2H25FY26EFY27E48,18456,25732.416.838.338.411,784.213,570.128.515.210.7212.3516.314.2 Target PriceRMB225.00(Previous TPRMB151.00)Up/Downside31.8%Current PriceRMB 170.76China SemiconductorsLily YANG,Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hkKevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hkJiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (RMB mn)194,231.4Avg 3 mths t/o (RMB mn)5,001.852w High/Low (RMB)185.83/71.99Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholding StructureShandong Zhongji InvestmentHoldings Co.Wang WeixiuSource: BloombergShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative49.9%118.0%58.1%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSet 1111.111.4%6.3%1-mth41.5%3-mth95.5%6-mth41.9% PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGESource: Company data, CMBIGM estimatesFigure3: Earnings revisionNewRMBmnFY25EFY26ERevenue36,38548,184Gross profit14,09318,466Net profit9,16711,784EPS (RMB)8.3410.72Gross margin38.7%38.3%Net margin25.2%24.5%Source: CMBIGM estimatesFigure4:CMBIGM estimates vs. Bloomberg consensusCMBIGMRMBmnFY25EFY26ERevenue36,38548,184Gross profit14,09318,466Net profit9,16711,784EPS (RMB)8.3410.72Gross margin38.7%38.3%Net margin25.2%24.5%Source:Bloombergconsensus, CMBIGM estimatesFigure5:Peers tableMkt CapCompanyTicker(US$mn)Innolight300308 CH26,434TFC300394 CH9,771Eoptolink300502 CH23,508Huagong Tech000988 CH6,682Accelink002281 CH5,336Source:Bloombergconsensus, CMBIGM estimatesNote:Earnings estimates for Innolight are CMBIGM estimates Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimatesOldFY25EFY26EFY27EFY25E35,00846,54555,1423.9%12,35816,71019,85114.0%7,72210,26412,03318.7%7.029.3410.9518.8%35.3%35.9%36.0%3.4 ppt22.1%22.1%21.8%3.1 pptBBG ConsensusFY25EFY26EFY27EFY25E35,98743,85649,9271.1%12,44915,19517,17913.2%8,22710,14211,45611.4%7.178.8910.2416.3%34.6%34.6%34.4%4.1 ppt22.9%23.1%22.9%2.3 pptP/E (x)GPMFY25EFY26EFY25EFY26E21.016.338.738.332.024.154.954.122.417.146.946.627.721.821.621.837.528.824.525.328.121.637.337.2 PLEASE READ THE ANALYSTCERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primaryresponsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about thesubject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in theHong Kong listed companies covered in this report.CMBIGM RatingsBUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line withthe relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should independently evaluate particular investmentsand strategies, and encourages investors to consult with a professional financial advisor in order to make t