中国恢复H20/MI308销售的影响；对AI服务器/组件供应链的积极影响

TPUpside/P/E (x)P/B (x)ROE (%)(LC)DownsideFY25EFY26EFY25EFY26EFY25EFY26E9,31443.2233%12.09.71.81.615.016.636,22255.0954%15.612.62.52.516.420.42,3423.4838%11.57.80.90.88.410.015,375NANA10.910.12.52.223.923.864,563NANA15.813.22.72.517.518.511,976NANA23.118.93.43.014.715.8 China Technology SectorAlex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hkHanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hkRelated Reports:1.Technology–Implications of US-Vietnam tariff deal; Apple supplychain to benefit most(4 Jul 2025)2.Technology–Implications of China-US tariff reduction(13May 2025)3.Technology-Implications of NvidiaH20 export restriction for AIserver/component supply chain(16Apr 2025)4.Technology-US tariff updates:Reciprocal tariff exemptions forsmartphone /PC/server but newelectronics tariff will come soon(14Apr 2025)5.Technology-US tariff updates:Addressing FAQs after a volatileday(8 Apr 2025)6.Technology-Implications of USreciprocal tariffs on supply chain(3Apr 2025)7.Technology–Computex 2025Takeaways: GB300 NVL72, liquidcooling, GPU/SOCAMM socket, AIPCs, DGX Spark (26 May 2025)8.BYDE (285 HK)-Takeaways frommgmt. visit: Apple order win, autorapid ramp-up and AI server bizexpansion (2 Jun 2025) PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEFigure1:Nvidia’press releaseonH20 salesresumptionandRTX PRO GPUfor China.Source:Companydata,CMBIGMFigure2: Analysis of Nvidia’s H20 ban and inventory write-down in CY1Q2520241Q25(China CSP order)InventoryWritedownH20 Inventory (US$ mn)--5,500H20 Sales(US$ mn)12,50016,00013,750H20 ASP (US$ k)12.512.512.5H20 chip-shipments(k units)1,0001,2801,100H20 AI server-shipments(k units)125160138Source:Company data,CMBIGMestimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this researchreport, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report.CMBIGM RatingsBUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel:(852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should independently evaluateparticular investmentsand strategies, and encourages investors to consult with a professional financial advisor in order to make their own investment decisions.This report or any information contained herein, have been prepared by theCMBIGM, solely forthe purpose of supplying information to the clients ofCMBIGMor its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any secu