2Q25预览：农业化学上涨，磷酸盐领涨

EquitiesChemicalsChinaYi Ru* (Reg.No.S1700520120001)Head, A-share Petrochem &New Materials ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedyi.ru@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662008Jill Huang* (Reg. No. S1700524120002)Analyst, A-share Petrochemical and New MaterialsHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedjl.q.huang@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662024*Employed by a non-US afiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHesitant bulls of summerThe 20th edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewIssuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Estimate changesSkshu Paint (603737 CH, RMB38.46, Hold)Skshu released a 1H25 profit alert with an implied 2Q25e net profit of RMB275-355m, up 69-118% y-o-y. We attribute the earnings beat to better-than-expected cost control through labourEPSCAGRof20%.However,wearestill conservativeontheoverall coatingsdemandSatellite Chemical (002648 CH, RMB17.60, Buy)We lower our 2025-27e net profit estimates by 3-12% to reflect: (1) rising raw material costs duetothe10%importtariff imposed on Us propane;and (2)an expected construction delay intheETO (ethane-to-olefin) phase IV project that we previously expect to be launched in 2027e. Ournet profit estimates imply a 2025-27e EPS CAGR of 14%.Wanhua Chemical (600309 CH, RMB54.30, Hold)We lower our 2025e revenue estimate by 6% due to: (1) the lower sales volume of MDl after theUS tariff hike; and (2) the lower run-rate of petrochemical products, given the maintenance in2Q25. As such, we lower our 2025e net profit estimate by 9% after lowering: (1) the spreadassumptionsofTDlandpolymerduetooversupplyconcernsamidlukewarmdemand;and(2)the DD&A (depreciation, depletion and amortisation) drag from the ethylene project Il and a lowmargin to improve in 2026-27e when ethane is introduced as a raw material. Therefore, weraise our 2026-27e net profit estimates by 4-7%Xinfengming (XFM) (603225 CH, RMB11.24, Buy)We raise our 2025e net profit estimate by 8% to factor in a higher margin of polyester filamentsdue to the rising self-sufficiency of PTA.We expect the PTAphase IV project to be launched in4Q25e, despite the PTA phase IlI project being ramped up. However, we lower our 2026e netprofitestimateby5%toreflectourlowersalesvolumeestimatesofpolyesterfilaments,we expected. Superimposed with low prices maintained by industry leaders to suppress the idle2025-27e net profit estimates imply a 2025-27e EPS CAGR of 51%. Valuation and risksOrientalCurrent price:YuhongRMB11.21002271CHTarget price:RMB11.90Upside:Hold+6%Skshu PaintCurrent price:RMB38.46603737 CHTarget price:RMB41.00HoldUpside:+7%SatelliteCurrent price:ChemicalRMB17.60002648 CHTarget price:RMB26.10Upside:Buy+48%WanhuaCurrent price:RMB54.30ChemicalTarget price:600309 CHRMB56.50Upside:Hold+4%10 Financials & valuation: Skshu PaintFinancial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eProfit & loss summary (CNYm)Revenue12,10513,10414,430EBITDA8201,3431,587Depreciation & amortisation-383-399-391Operating profit/EBIT437tt61,196Net interest-161-72-39PBT2628721,157HSBC Qianhai PBT2628721,157Taxation51-87-116Net profit3327851,041HSBC Qianhai net profit3327851,041Cash flow summary (CNYm)Cash flow from operations6041,7531,692Capex-450-321-273Cash flow from investment-450-321-273-521Dividends-236Change in net debt847-1,323-827FCF equity1551,4331,419Balance sheet summary (CNYm)Intangible fixed assets535533530Tangible fixed assets6.6966.5966.457Current assets6,7616,0347,213Cash & others1,6917551,529Total assets13,99313,16314,200Operating liabilities5,4786,0806,522Gross debt3,5981,3381,285Net debt1,907583-2443.5134,162Shareholders' funds2,686Invested capital6,8246,3286,149Ratio, growth and per share analysisYearto12/2024a12/2025e12/2026ey-o-y % changeRevenue-3.0810.11.363.818.2EBITDAOperating profit15.1116.226.6PBT37.9232.632.6HSBC Qianhai EPS6'0668.932.6Ratios (%)Revenue/lC (x)1.82.02.3ROIC7.912.917.3ROE12.925.327.1ROA2.25.87.6EBITDA margin8:910.211.0Operating profit margin3.67.28.3EBITDA/net interest (x)5.118.640.6Net debt/equity64.215.4-5.5Net debt/EBITDA (x)2.30.4-0.2CF from operations/net debt31.7300.5Per share data (CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)0.631.061.41HSBC Qianhai EPS (diluted)0.631.061.41DPS0.320.530.71Book value3.644.765.64 Financials & valuation: Satellite ChemicalFinancial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary (CNYm)Revenue45,64849,17159,54864,605EBITDA10,81910,80911,92012,641Depreciation & amortisation-2,761-2,809-2,907-3,009Operating profit/EBIT8,0588,0009,0139,632Net interest-1,025-835-526-314PBT7,0187,1648,4879,317HSBC Qianhai PBT7,0187,1648.4879,317Taxation-956-896-1,058-1,152Net profit6,0726,2697,4298,165HSBC Qianhai net profit6,0726,2697,4298,165Cash flow summary (CNYm)Cash flow from operations10,59010,05911,09211,477-4.708-4,850Capex-4,158-4,928-2,944Cash flow from investment-4,756-4,899-4,978Dividends-1,347-1,684-1,881-2,229Change in net debt-4,041-2,927-3,894-4,134FCF equity6,4335,3