紧张的消费者；2025年上半年回顾

Conributors were Food (MARS was 34% of sector 08 July 2025High Grade CreditUnited StatesConsumer & RetailTable of Contents1H25 Consumer & Retail returns summarySummaryConsumer & Retail vs. High GradeSpread change y/y (OAS)Sector relative value: OAS1H25 spread charts (OAS)Total returns (%)Excess returns (bps)Index composition5Y CDS performance in 1H251H25 equity performanceSupply breakdown 1H25Issuance monitorICE Data Indices IG market metricsBrian Callen, CFAResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 8987brian.callen@bofa.comShaun MaherResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 7213shaun.maher2@bofa.comExhibit 1: Consumer & Retail SnapshotNon-Cyclicals outperformed Cyclicals in 1H252024 YE OAS1H25 Ending OAS1H25 OAS Chg1H25 Total Return1H25 Excess ReturnSource: ICE Data Indices, LLC 12848673 IGIndex8286+4+4.20%+3.95%+20 1H25 Consumer & Retail returns summaryThe enclosed data, returns, and charts represent 1H25 performance of all relevantConsumer & Retail indices and sub-sectors for the period ending June 30, 2025. All datarefers to respective ICE Data Indices, unless otherwise indicated.SummaryExhibit 2:Consumer &Retail Returns SummaryNon-Cyclicals were in-line with High Grade spreads and returns in 1H25 while Cyclicals lagged given qualitySpreads (OAS)2024 0AS2024 chg1H25 0AS1H25 chgHG Corporate Index82 bps-22 bps86 bps4 bpsIndustrials81 bps-16 bps85 bps4 bpsConsumer Cyclicals59 bps-13 bps65 bps6 bpsUS Corp Food & Drug Retail99 bps-15 bps100 bps1 bpsUS Corp Restaurants62 bps-5 bps71 bps9 bpsUS Corp Retail54 bps-15 bps59 bps5 bpsConsumer Non-Cyclicals69 bps-16 bps73 bps4 bpsUS Corp Beverage60 bps-6 bps64 bps4 bpsUS Corp Food Wholesale74 bps-16 bps78 bps4 bpsUS Corp Tobacco88 bps-41 bps88 bps0 bpsUS Corp Consumer Products55 bps-10 bps58 bps3 bpsSource: ICE Data Indices, LLCConsumer & Retail vs. High GradeExhibit 3: Total ReturnsConsumer was middle of the pack on total returns; Cyclicals lagged the IG Index while Non-Cyclicals was marginally ahead5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC2Industry ReportI08 July2025 2024 chg2.76%1.83%0.97%2.74%0.30%0.88%1.84%0.10%2.09%4.65%1.51% Spread change y/y (OAS)Exhibit 4: Consumer & Retail vs. IndexCyclicals widened +2bps relative to IG & Non-Cyclicals654432HG Corporates Consumer Non-IndustrialsCyclicalsSource: ICE Data Indices, LLCExhibit 6: Consumer Cyclicals vs. subsectorsRestaurants underperformed on traffic softness, geopolitical unrest, labor1098765543Food & DrugRetailRetailSource: ICE Data Indices, LLC 46ConsumerCyclicals 6RestaurantsBofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Food & Beverages traded in-line with Non-Cyclicals4TobaccoConsumerFoodConsumerProductsWholesale Non-CyclicalsSource: ICE Data Indices, LLCIndustryReport108 July2025 Sector relative value: OASSince YE24, on a spread basis, the gap between Consumer Non-Cyclicals and the overallhigh grade sector has remained -13bps apart implying in-line performance. Thiscompares to Consumer Cyclicals where the gap vs. high grade narrowed modestly from -23 to -21bps as Cyclicals underperformed. On a relative basis (not duration-adjusted),the spreadbetweenCyclicals andNon-Cyclicalsnarrowedfrom1Obpsto just 8bpsExhibit 8: Consumer & Retail vs. Industrials120110100908071717270656050403020100Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC4Industry ReportI08 July2025 919185 86887873 1H25 spread charts (OAS)Exhibit 9: Consumer & Retail vs. IndexSector spreads have moved in-line with Corporates, reflecting macro-related themes vs idiosyncratic activity130HGCorporatesIndustrials1201101009080706050Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Source: ICE Data Indices, LLCExhibit 10: Consumer Cyclicals vs. sub-sectorsSubsector spread differentials remained relatively stable, with Food & Drug wider driven by Kroger & c-store duration140Consumer Cyclicals1301201101009080706050Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Source: ICE Data Indices, LLCExhibit 11: Consumer Non-Cyclicals vs. sub-sectorsFood outperformed around liberation day only to lag in May/June as volumes remain disappointing150Consumer Non-Cyclicals140Tobacco1301201101009080706050Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC Consumer CyclicalsConsumer Non-CyclicalsApr-25May-25Jun-25BofA GLOBAL RESEARCHFood & Drug RetailRestaurantsRetailApr-25May-25Jun-25BofA GLOBAL RESEARCHBeverageFood WholesaleConsumerProductsApr-25May-25Jun-25BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Total returns (%)Exhibit 12: Consumer & Retail vs. IndexCyclicals and Non-Cyclicals bracket IG returns5.00%3.95%4.00%3.00%ConsumerIndustrials HG CorporatesCyclicalsSource: ICE Data Indices, LLCExhibit 14: Consumer Cyclicals vs. sub-sectorsRestaurants lagged, Retail was in-line, and Food & Drug was slightly ahead10.00%7.50%5.00%3.79%2.50%0.00%RestaurantsSource: ICE Data Indices, LLC6Industry ReportI08 July2025 4.14%3.95%Retail Excess returns (bps)Exhibit 16: Consumer & Retail vs. IndexCyclicals notably underperformed Non-Cyclicals and IG in 1H252014151050-1-5ConsumerIndustrialsCyclicalsSource: ICE Data Indices, LLCExhibit 18: Consumer Cyclicals vs. sub-sectorsAway from home eatin