2025年6月信用卡信托预览：预计逾期率环比优于季节性，净核销率略逊于季节性

Restricted - External U.S. Consumer FinanceNEUTRALU.S. Large-Cap BanksPOSITIVEU.S. Consumer FinanceTerry Ma, CFA+12125267965terry.ma@barclays.comBCI, USJulia Gul+1 212 526 9132julia.gul@barclays.comBCI, USCordelia R Deng+1 212 526 7625cordeliar.deng@barclays.comBCI, USU.S. Large-Cap BanksJason M.Goldberg, CFA+12125268580jason.goldberg@barclays.comBCI, USJohn Hotchkiss III+1 212526 2687john.hotchkissil@barclays.comBCI, USMatthew Kesselhaut+12125260181matthew.kesselhaut@barclays.comBCI, US DFS:NCOsdown12bpsto2.54%;DQsdown1bps1.65%JPM: NCOs down20bps to 1.64%, DQs down 2bps to 0.83%SYF: NCOs down 16bps to 4.69%; DQs flat at 2.94%FIGURE 1. Average Delinquencies vs. Average NCOs (4-month lag)DQ RatioDelinquency RateNCO Rate (4-month lag)7%76%5%4%3%2%1%0%Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18Source: Barclays Research, Company DocumentsSep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-251.40%1.32%1.47%1.26%1.24%1.53%1.81%1.52%1.27%2.46%2.51%2.39%2.64%2.53%2.43%2.46%2.73%2.70%2.38%2.53%2.36%2.40%2.84%2.26%2.28%3.00%2.70%2.88%2.64%2.74%2.74%2.97%2.68%2.95%3.04%2.71%2.48%2.63%2.07%2.41%2.55%2.63%2.70%2.66%2.55%1.64%1.57%1.62%1.64%%911.64%1.68%1.85%1.67%4.87%4.60%4.72%4.67%5.33%4.81%5.26%5.42%5.32%0.79%0.83%0.83%0.81%0.83%0.83%0.81%0.80%1.43%1.48%.52% LS'L1.46%1.50%1.51%1.47%1.42%1.46%%ES11.45%1.49%1.47%1.44%1.41%1.91%12.02%2.01%%L62.03%2.04%1.93%1.82%1.67%1.77%1.76%1.82%1.77%1.2%0.84%%L80%+80% L6°0%68°02.84%e3.01%3.17%3.27%3.16%3.28%3.14%%02.95% SeasonalityCredit card delinquencies and net charge-offs are subject to seasonal trends. Delinquencieshistorically improve between March and June (posting an average cumulative improvement ofabout 4obps during those three months) as consumers receive their tax refunds, remain mostlyflat in June, and generally increase in every other month of the year (particularly in August,September, and October), with the exception of December, which benefits from a denominatoreffect as consumers add new balances through holiday spend.■2025 FIGURE 4.2025Monthly Change in NCOs vs.Historical Median Change(Trust Data)0.20%0.10%0.00%-0.10%-0.20%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAAug Sept Oct Nov Dec■Historical Median (1997-24)2025Note: Includes AXP, BAC, C, COF, DFS, JPM, and SYFSource: Barclays Research and Company Reports3 American ExpressDelinquencies: We expect June managed delinquencies to be up 10bps m/m to 1.40%down 2bps m/m at 0.77% (vs. historically down 1bp m/m).Ncos: We expect AxP's managed NcOs to be up 5bps m/m to 2.15% (vs. historically down 18bpsm/m in June) and trust Ncos to be down 9bps m/m to 1.19% (vs. historically down 9bps).Loan growth: We expect AxP's U.S. total card member loans (incl. U.S. small business) toincrease 9.0% y/y in June (vs. up 10.5% y/y last month).FIGURE 5. AXP's Trust Delinquencies vs. Net Charge-offs (4-month lag)6%5%4%3%2%1%%0Source: Barclays Research and Company DocumentsBank of Americaoutlook: In 1Q25, credit card NcOs increased 26bps to 4.05% as seasonally higher 4Q24 latestage delinquencies rolled through to charge-off. Early- and late-stage credit carddelinquencies declined sequentially. Period-end credit card balances were -3.7% m-o-mand +1.3% y-o-y.DQs: We expect 30-plus day delinquencies in June to decrease 3bps to 1.35%. This followsdelinquencies decreasing 5bps to 1.37% in May. Historically, delinquencies fall 2bps in June (28-year median).Ncos: We expect NCOs to fall 15bps to 2.27%. This follows NCOs decreasing 28bps in May.Historically, NcOs decrease 10bps in June (28-year median). Delinquency Rate (LHS)12%NCO Rate (4-Month Lag. RHS)10%8%6%4%2%2N5 0%4 Bread FinancialDQs: We expect 30+ days DQ rate to come in at 5.79% in June, up 7bps m/m (vs. normalseasonality of up 15bps m/m in June from 2015-2019) and down 20bps y/y (vs. down 22bps y/ylast month). We estimate trust delinquencies to be down 5bps m/m to 5.10% (vs. flat m/m lastmonth).Ncos: We expect NcOs of 8.21%, up 23bps m/m and down 17bps y/y (vs. down 82bps y/y lastmonth). We expect trust NcOs to be up 10bps m/m to 7.62% (vs. up 24bps last month).Guidance:FY25NCOguideis8.0%to8.2%.2QNCOisexpectedtoremainelevatedbeforedeclining seasonally in 3Q. Hurricane relief actions will impact 2Q negatively by ~s13mn. At aninvestor conference, BFH's CFO said that if there was no liberation day / tariff noise, thecompany would have thought it would deliver FY25 Nco below 8%. But because of the tariffsituation, management is more confident in the low end of the guide of 8.0%.Loans: We expect loans to be down ~0.8% m/m and down 1.0% y/y (vs. down ~0.8% y/y lastmonth). Management expects average loan growth to be flat to slightly down y/y in FY25FIGURE 7. BFH's Managed Delinquencies vs. Net Charge-offs (4-month lag)8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%22DQ Rate (LHS)Source: Barclays Research and Company Documents [ 10%%68%7%%95%4%%2%1%0%222222333344忆忆22NCO Rate (4-Month Lag. RHS)5 Capital OneCard: Delinquencies: PF for the DFS acquisition, we expect managed DQs of 3.69%, down 26bps y/yin June vs. down 25bps y/y in April (we no