7月第2期：普涨：估值与盈利周观察

守正出奇宁静致远 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分目录一、市场普涨，创业板指与微盘居前..................................................4二、宽基指数估值普涨..............................................................6三、行业估值普涨，房地产、钢铁领涨...............................................10四、风险提示：...................................................................15 守正出奇宁静致远 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分图表目录图表1：上周创业板指、微盘股表现居前.................................................4图表2：上周钢铁、房地产、非银金融表现居前...........................................5图表3：创业板指/沪深300相对PE(TTM)................................................6图表4：创业板指/沪深300相对PB(LF).................................................6图表5：万得全A ERP.................................................................6图表6：宽基指数PE-G................................................................7图表7：宽基指数PB-ROE..............................................................7图表8：各指数估值...................................................................8图表9：大类行业指数PE(TTM).........................................................9图表10：大类行业指数PB(LF).........................................................9图表11：各行业估值.................................................................10图表12：各行业估值偏离度...........................................................11图表13：各行业PB-ROE..............................................................12图表14：热门概念估值...............................................................13图表15：各行业盈利预期增速.........................................................14图表16：港股及海外主要指数估值情况.................................................15 守正出奇宁静致远 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分一、市场普涨，创业板指与微盘居前上周创业板指、微盘股、国证2000表现最好；科创50、红利、沪深300表现最弱。图表1：上周创业板指、微盘股表现居前近一周近半月近三周1.711.562.961.091.421.791.781.533.410.821.181.742.361.994.380.980.960.450.230.891.211.201.352.262.291.523.26万得微盘股指数2.991.775.812.063.142.271.040.372.861.471.532.942.111.633.571.211.571.39 守正出奇宁静致远资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理近一月6.284.406.414.478.893.272.125.067.0111.878.384.834.787.422.88 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远上周行业中，钢铁、房地产、非银金融涨幅前三，银行、汽车、煤炭表现最弱。图表2：上周钢铁、房地产、非银金融表现居前资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理近一周近半月近三周近一月1.091.263.474.201.530.302.894.974.414.9310.3711.721.02-0.604.276.540.930.472.615.61-0.30-0.271.143.730.840.980.661.311.620.864.266.332.030.842.886.351.822.215.807.221.111.792.352.820.760.870.421.216.125.666.709.612.202.061.235.652.111.902.986.333.784.517.219.963.343.437.3810.372.592.473.536.812.501.644.709.470.88-0.042.997.883.223.171.537.783.114.065.847.062.131.263.856.65-1.000.82-0.304.133.964.362.7710.67-0.41-0.94-0.381.911.870.882.475.22-1.08-0.671.201.431.531.191.39-1.773.172.104.317.691.52-0.371.191.77 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分二、宽基指数估值普涨上周创业板指/沪深300相对PE上升，创业板值/沪深300相对PB上升。图表3：创业板指/沪深300相对PE(TTM)资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理万得全A ERP下降，接近21年以来历史均值。图表5：万得全A ERP 守正出奇宁静致远图表4：创业板指/沪深300相对PB(LF)资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远PEG视角下选红利，PB-ROE视角下选成长。PEG衡量指数当前估值与盈利增速的匹配度，该视角下，当前红利与金融PEG值最小，意味具有较高配置价值；PB-ROE视角衡量为成长性所支付的溢价，当前看科创50与成长风格PB-ROE值最小，意味着投资者为两者所支付的成长溢价最小，具有较高的安全边际。图表6：宽基指数PE-G图表7：宽基指数PB-ROE资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分上周指数估值普涨，主要指数估值高于近一年50%分位水平。资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理大类行业整体估值分化，金融地产估值高于50%历史分位，原材料、设备制造、工业服务、交通运输、消费、科技历史估值处于50%左右及以下水平。本周涨跌幅PE-TTM近一年分位数近三年分位数PB（LF）近一年分位数近三年分位数近两月估值走势1.7120.2100.0100.01.799.61.0915.399.299.71.499.61.7827.297.594.42.498.80.8213.399.299.71.496.72.3633.166.161.64.171.10.98137.888.496.14.657.40.238.099.299.70.899.21.2015.499.299.71.599.62.2952.198.396.32.395.52.990.00.00.02.498.82.069.799.699.90.999.61.0422.098.899.61.899.61.4726.278.528.62.876.42.1175.1100.0100.03.293.01.2115.683.960.21.371.1 守正出奇宁静致远 守正出奇宁静致远资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分三、行业估值普涨，房地产、钢铁领涨各行业估值普涨，非银金融、农林牧渔、家电估值处于近一年低位。图表11：各行业估值本周涨跌幅PE-TTM近一年分位数近三年分位数PB（LF）近一年分位数-1.007.197.999.30.698.33.9615.338.851.41.484.56.1242.293.897.90.882.63.3427.697.999.31.291.72.5911.299.699.60.875.8-1.0812.782.492.31.218.61.5316.796.197.01.249.01.5325.499.299.71.990.14.4136.8100.0100.01.0100.01.0219.870.977.12.396.92.5031.368.479.52.469.60.8881.998.899.63.396.11.8732.379.388.02.583.53.1725.5100.0100.01.6100.03.7844.028.532.71.8100.01.1118.798.642.01.577.30.7616.354.884.91.369.03.2284.699.299.74.183.93.1144.399.289.02.899.42.1333.475.287.43.096.50.9353.257.983.53.676.7-0.4125.857.638.22.449.61.5238.083.152.73.255.01.0917.719.46.52.490.7-0.3014.032.450.82.334.30.8420.855.820.94.030.01.6226.098.398.61.896.72.0328.899.663.01.891.51.8235.8100.0100.02.899.22.2038.898.892.81.994.82.1143.297.142.43.085.1 守正出奇宁静致远资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理近三年分位数近两月估值走势99.494.851.247.545.713.920.351.288.066.144.475.988.789.375.243.544.291.195.498.892.278.322.435.428.711.088.946.554.761.355.0 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远从PE、PB偏离度的角度看，估值最便宜的行业集中于第三象限，而估值水平最贵的行业则集中于第一象限。从数据看，当前食品饮料、农林牧渔、公用事业、家用电器等行业估值较为便宜。图表12：各行业估值偏离度资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远PB-ROE视角下，当前非银、公用事业、农林牧渔、食品饮料以及社服PB-ROE较低。图表13：各行业PB-ROE资料来源：WIND，太平洋证券整理历史最高历史最低历史中位当前分位当前历史最高历史最低历史中位当前分位0.640.650.420.5099%8.919610.758.9210.100%1.361.540.911.1595%10.4810.896.038.2986%0.770.980.540.7651%-11.999.91-11.99-1.760%1.181.930.871.3148%2.8116.172.565.8313%0.761.030.58