爱沙尼亚共和国：选定问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperonthe Republic of Estoniawas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with theRepublic of Estonia. It is based on the information available at the time it was completedonJune16, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean DepartmentPrepared By Carlos de Resende, Sadhna Naik, Irina Bunda,Tibor Hanappi, Bingjie Hu, and Can Ugur CONTENTS REVISITING FISCAL MULTIPLIERS FOR ESTONIA ____________________________________ 4 A. Introduction: Fiscal Multipliers ________________________________________________________4B. The IMF’s “Bucket Approach” _________________________________________________________6C. Static Keynesian Fiscal Multipliers_____________________________________________________7D. Blanchard-Perotti SVAR Approach ____________________________________________________8E. Estimating the Impact of Fiscal Shocks on Potential GDP ___________________________ 13F. Conclusions _________________________________________________________________________ 14 FIGURES 1. Advanced Economies: Estimates of Fiscal Multipliers__________________________________52. Fiscal Multipliers in Estonia: Total Revenues ________________________________________ 103. Fiscal Multipliers in Estonia: Total Spending_________________________________________ 104. Effects of Temporary and Permanent Fiscal Shocks on Output ______________________ 14 TABLES 1. IMF's Bucket Approach: Ranges of First-Year “Normal Times” General FiscalMultipliers _______________________________________________________________________________62. IMF’s Bucket Approach Applied to Estonia as of 2025Q1______________________________73. Average Static Fiscal Multipliers (2024-2030)__________________________________________84. Impact and Cumulative Fiscal Multipliers of Selected Fiscal Instruments ____________ 12 ANNEXES I. Shock Identification in the BP (2002) SVAR Approach_______________________________________ 16II. A Structural Vector Error Correction Model for Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Shocks onPotential GDP_________________________________________________________________________________ 17 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 19 OPTIONS TO STRENGHTEN THE TAX SYSTEM IN ESTONIA _______________________________ 20 A. Introduction________________________________________________________________________________ 20B. Tax Mix, Effort and Potential in Estonia_____________________________________________________ 23C. Benchmarking the Estonian Tax System against Best Practices ____________________________ 25D. Labor Taxation _____________________________________________________________________________ 28E. Business Income Taxation __________________________________________________________________ 32F. Value-Added Tax ___________________________________________________________________________ 37G. Property Taxes _____________________________________________________________________________ 39H. Conclusion _________________________________________________________________________________ 43 BOXES 1. Main Changes to Tax System Introduced in 2024-26 _______________________________________ 212. Income Taxation: Efficiency-Equity Trade-Off ______________________________________________ 263. Property Taxation in Estonia________________________________________________________________ 40 FIGURES 1. Discussion of Personal Income Tax Reform Scenarios ______________________________________ 31 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 44 ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY, FIRM DYNAMICS, AND PRODUCTIVITY IN THE BALTICS _____ 46 A. Introduction and Literature Review ________________________________________________________ 46B. The Labor Productivity Growth Decomposition Exercise ___________________________________ 49C. Conclusion _________________________________________________________________________________ 57 FIGURES 1. TFP Growth Decomposition ________________________________________________________________ 462. Variance of Marginal Revenue Product of Capital (MRPK) __________________________________ 473. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Estonian Firms ___________________________ 504. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Latvian Firms ____________________________ 51 5. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Lithuanian Firms _________________________ 526. Labor Productivity Distribution of Entrant Firms____________________________________________ 537. Employment Share of Micro Firms and That of Young Firms _______________________________ 548.