世界银行-利比亚经济监测，2025年春季：重新定义利比亚国有企业的作用

Redefining the Role ofState-Owned Enterprisesin Libya Spring 2025 LibyaEconomic Monitor Redefining the Roleof State-Owned Enterprisesin Libya Spring 2025 © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or fail-ure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and otherinformation shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legalstatus of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immuni-ties of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The WorldBank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photos courtesy of: Libya flag (top) www.shutterstock.com/em_concepts, woman engineer (center left) www.shutter-stock.com/Chachamp, state-owned enterprise gears (center right) www.shutterstock.com/AlexLMX, and teacher with stu-dents (bottom) www.shutterstock.com/Zurijeta. Publication design and layout by The Word Express, Inc. AbbreviationsvPrefaceviiExecutiveSummaryix Conflict and Institutional Developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1Economic Growth and Hydrocarbon Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Public Finances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Monetary Sector andInflation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5External Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 2.Outlook and Risks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Defining SOEs: International vs Libyan Contexts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16The State’s Heavy Footprint and Its Consequences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17Inefficiency, Poor Performance, and Fiscal Drain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19SOEs as a Barrier for Private Sector Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21Opportunities Ahead for Libya’s SOEs Reform Path. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 References27 List of Figures Figure 1Libya’sLifeExpectancy atBirthFallsBelowPeers…. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Figure 2…withSimilarPattern inYears ofSchooling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Figure 3Number ofViolentEventsPickedUp in 2024…. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Figure 4…while theNumber ofViolentEventsRegisteredHigherduring Q1-2025Compared to Q1-2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Figure 5LibyaHasRampedUp itsOilProductionFollowing theResolution of the CBLCrisis. . . . . . . . . . .4Figure 6EconomicGrowthRemainsHeavilyDependent onDevelopments in theOilSector. . . . . . . . . . . .4Figure 7The GNUReported aQuasi-BalancedBu