世界银行东亚及太平洋经济更新，2025年4月：更长远的视角

A LONGER VIEW WORLD BANKEAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATEAPRIL 2025 A Longer View © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 28 27 26 25 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governmentsthey represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work anddoes not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of orfailure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotesand other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal statusof any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean theWorld Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofThe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, includingfor commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2025.A Longer View.World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update(April 2025). Washington, DC: World Bank, doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2232-2. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translationwas not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not beliable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is anadaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of theauthor or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. TheWorld Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the workwill not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If youwish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and toobtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables,figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington,DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-2232-2 Contents Preface and Acknowledgments xi List of Abbreviationsxiii Abstract xv SummaryI. Recent developmentsII. Long-term challenges xviixxvi I. Recent developments and outlookI.1. Recent developmentsI.2. Economic outlook II. Long-term challengesII.1 Changing global economic integrationII.2. Climate risksII.3. AgingII.4. Implications for potential growth 7073 ReferencesAppendices List ofFigures SummaryFigure O1.The region has grown faster than the rest of the world but growth this year is likely to declinein many countriesxviiFigure O2.Growth has been supported by private consumption in the major countries, services exportsin Malaysia and Thailand, and goods exports in China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand,while private investment remained weak in most countriesxviiiFigure O3.External factors are shaping near-term economic performance in the EAP countriesxixFigure O4.Global economic policy uncertainty, especially in relation to trade policy has increased inrecent months; increased tariffs could reduce exports of some EAP countries; and growth inadvanced economies is expected to declinexixFigure O5.Retail sales growth is below the pre-Covid trend in China and the ASEAN-5 (except Thailand);Consumption growth is reduced by increased uncertaintyxxFigure O6.Industrial production growth has been strong in China; in the rest of the region, it remainsbelow pre-Covid-19 trendsxx