利比亚经济监测 2025年秋季：为公共财政管理的问责制和透明度铺平道路

Setting the Path TowardsAccountability and Fall 2025 Setting the Path Towards Accountability and © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or fail-ure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immuni-ties of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The WorldBank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photos: “Shades of Libya: Contrasts, Hope, and Resilience”, World Bank, Feb 2025 AbbreviationsPrefaceExecutive Summary Conflict and Institutional Developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1Economic Growth and Hydrocarbon Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Summary and Key Take-Aways. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15An Introduction to PFM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16How do Libya’sMain PFMFeaturesCompare with other FCSCountries?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Conclusion List of Figures Figure 1SecurityConditionsDeterioratedduring 2025Compared to 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Figure 2The CBLCrisisHeavilyAffectedEconomicGrowth in 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Figure 3OilProductionRegistered aMarkedRecovery in 2025DespiteFragileSecurityContext. . . . . . . .3Figure 4The GNURegistered aWidenedSurplusduring theFirstNineMonths of 2025…. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Figure 5…however,SpendingContinues toBeHeavilySkewed toRecurrentExpenditures. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Figure 6MoneySupply andCurrencyOutside theBanksContinued toGrow,Albeit, at aSlowerPace…. .6Figure 7…while theGap betweenOfficial andParallelExchangeRatesWidened. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6Figure 8Inflation isMainlyDriven byFood andBeveragesPrices…. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7Figure 9FoodItems under MEBDemonstrateHigherMonthlyVolatilityCompared to CPI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 List of Tables Table 1Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2022–2027. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Table 2BudgetPreparation PEFA Scores for Selected FCS Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18Table 3Forecastinga PEFA Scores for Selected FCS Countriesb. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18Table 4InternalControls PEFA Scores for Selected FCS Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 List of Boxes Box 1SubsidiesReform andUniversalCashTransfer: Iran as aCaseStudy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Box 2TradeData: Need forQualityTradeReporting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Box 3Global, Regional, and Energy Market Prospects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 BTIBertelsmann Transformation IndexCBLCentral Bank of LibyaCPIConsumer Price IndexEFIEconomic Fitness IndexFCVFragile, Conflict, and ViolenceFDIForeign Direct InvestmentGDPGross Domestic ProductGNIGross National IncomeGNSGovernment of National StabilityGNUGovernment of National UnityHoRHouse of RepresentativesILOInternational Labor OrganizationIMFInternational Monetary FundLEMLibya Economic MonitorLYDLibyan DinarMbpdMillion barrels per dayMENAMiddle East and North AfricaNOCNational Oil CorporationSCMSynthetic Control MethodTFPTotal Factor ProductivityUSDUnited States DollarWBGWorld Bank Group author