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甲醇周报：下游MTO检修，港口累库周期延续

2025-07-13梁宗泰、陈莉、杨露露、吴硕琮、刘启展华泰期货胡***

AI智能总结

核心观点与市场分析

市场现状：海外甲醇开工率稳定在71.13%，中国进口甲醇到港量增加，内地甲醇开工率小幅下滑，港口累库周期延续，短期市场偏弱。
供需格局：伊朗装置复工导致海外供应压力上升，但中国到港量仍大，港口累库幅度偏慢；兴兴MTO检修拖累港口需求。内地煤头甲醇检修开工下滑，传统下游甲醛季节性淡季，但MTBE及醋酸开工尚可，需求韧性足，内地工厂库存回建速率慢，内地强于港口。

关键数据

港口供应：海外甲醇开工率71.13%，中国进口甲醇周频到港量31.03万吨，其中华东28.92万吨，华南2.11万吨。
内地供应：中国甲醇开工率84.75%，煤制甲醇开工率77.87%，天然气甲醇开工率48.71%，焦炉气甲醇开工率57.55%；西北开工率86.58%，华北68.75%，华中87.22%，华东83.27%，西南83.63%。
港口需求：太仓周均提货量1591吨/天，华东MTO企业周度采购量237100吨，外采甲醇MTO企业开工率81.08%。
内地需求：甲醇企业待发订单量221240吨，传统下游样本企业原料采购量35400吨，甲醛开工率44.77%，醋酸开工率93.91%，MTBE外销工厂开工率66.86%，二甲醚开工率5.19%；西北MTO企业周度采购量26000吨，MTO企业开工率85.15%。
库存：甲醇港口库存718900吨，其中江苏395000吨，浙江175500吨，广东112000吨，福建36400吨；MTO样本企业甲醇库存70万吨，下游样本企业甲醇库存177000吨，内地工厂库存356900吨，西北厂库228000吨，华北厂库23200吨，华中厂库15700吨，华东厂库66600吨，西南厂库21700吨。

策略与风险

交易策略：单边中性，跨期MA09-01跨期价差逢高做反套，跨品种PP01-3MA01逢高做缩。
风险因素：伊朗地缘冲突进展，伊朗甲醇装置复工速率，MTO装置检修兑现进度。

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2025年期货市场研究报告图表图1：甲醇主力期货合约价格走势............................................................................................................................................4图2：甲醇太仓现货价格............................................................................................................................................................4图3：甲醇内蒙北线现货价格....................................................................................................................................................4图4：主力合约太仓基差............................................................................................................................................................4图5：主力合约内蒙北线基差....................................................................................................................................................4图6：甲醇01-05期货合约价差...................................................................................................................................................4图7：甲醇05-09期货合约价差...................................................................................................................................................5图8：甲醇09-01期货合约价差...................................................................................................................................................5图9：国外甲醇产能利用率........................................................................................................................................................5图10：甲醇中国到港量..............................................................................................................................................................5图11：甲醇到港量：华东地区..................................................................................................................................................5图12：甲醇到港量：华南地区..................................................................................................................................................5图13：中国甲醇产能利用率......................................................................................................................................................6图14：中国煤制甲醇周度开工率..............................................................................................................................................6图15：中国天然气甲醇周度开工率..........................................................................................................................................6图16：中国焦炉气甲醇周度开工率..........................................................................................................................................6图17：华北地区甲醇开工率......................................................................................................................................................6图18：西北地区甲醇开工率......................................................................................................................................................6图19：华东地区甲醇开工率......................................................................................................................................................7图20：华中地区甲醇开工率......................................................................................................................................................7图21：西南地区甲醇开工率......................................................................................................................................................7图22：华南地区甲醇开工率......................................................................................................................................................7图23：太仓甲醇周度发运量......................................................................................................................................................7图24：MTO企业采购量.............................................................................................................................................................7图25：MTO企业采购量：华东地区.........................................................................................................................................8图26：MTO企业采购量：西北地区.........................................................................................................................................8图27：甲醇生产企业待发订单数量..........................................................................................................................................8图28：传统下游样本企业原料采购量......................................................................................................................................8图29：外采甲醇的MTO企业开工率.........................................................................................................................................8图30：MTO企业产能利用率.....................................................................................................................................................8图31：甲醛产能利用率........................................................................................................

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