应对天气冲击：加强纳米比亚农业韧性的挑战和投资

Navigating WeatherShocks: Challenges andInvesting to StrengthenAgriculture Resilience inNamibia Chen Chen, Ankita Goel, Koralai Kirabaeva, Nooman Rebei and HajimeTakizawa SIP/2025/091 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on May 28, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/133. 2025JUL IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department Navigating Weather Shocks: Challenges and Investing to Strengthen Agriculture Resilience in NamibiaPrepared by Chen Chen, Ankita Goel, Koralai Kirabaeva, Nooman Rebei and Hajime TakizawaAuthorized for distribution by Xiangming LiJuly2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 28, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/133. ABSTRACT:Namibia’s arid climate makes it highly susceptible to severe weather shocks. The prolongeddrought in 2023–24 caused a sharp decline in crop yields and exacerbated food insecurity. This paperdocuments Namibia’s vulnerabilities to future weather shocks, including droughts and changes in rainfallpatterns, discusses potential economic and fiscal implications, and explores public investment strategies.Investing in agricultural resilience, including water infrastructure, drought-resistant crops, and farmer insuranceschemes, can mitigate climate-induced economic losses and improve food security. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Chen et al. “Navigating Weather Shocks: Challenges and Investing toStrengthen Agriculture Resilience in Namibia.” IMF Selected Issues Paper(SIP/2025/091). Navigating WeatherShocks: Challenges andInvesting to StrengthenAgriculture Resilience inNamibia Namibia Prepared by Chen Chen, Ankita Goel, Koralai Kirabaeva, Nooman Rebeiand Hajime Takizawa A. Introduction 1.Namibia is one of the most arid countries in the world, rendering it vulnerable to severeweather shocks.With 92 percent of Namibia's land classified as arid, much of the country is inhospitable, owing to severe water scarcity causingchallenges in sustaining agriculture andhuman settlements. The country is ranked asthe 21stmost water stressed countriesglobally.1This arid environment affects foodsecurity, as 11 percent of Namibianhouseholds depend on subsistence orcommercial farming as the main source oflivelihood, which makes them highlyvulnerable to drought and water shortages.2Italso has implications for energy security, asthe bulk of domestic electricity generationcomes from hydropower, which is planned tobe expanded further.3 During 2020–24,imports accounted for an average of 67percent of total electricity demand in thesecond half of the year, a predominantly dryseason with lower hydropower generation. Incontrast, the import share averaged 54percent in the first half of the year, which istypically wetter (The Villager, 2024) (NSA,2024). 2.The vulnerability of the economy,notably agricultural and water-dependentsectors, has been exposed by the droughtsince 2023.The drought has sharply reduced crop farming output,4contributing to slower GDP growth in 2024 and causing serious socio-economicconsequences, as agriculture supports 70 percent of the Namibian population directly or indirectly (FAO,Namibia). It led to a sharply higher incidence of food insecurity compared to past years, with approximately 40percent of the population already facing high levels of acute food insecurity and 84 percent of food reserves exhausted as of September 2024.5Furthermore, dam water levels declined by 70 percent, constrainingactivities in other water-intensive sectors (Reliefweb, 2024). 3.Namibia’s already vulnerable economy could be exposed to even greater weather shocks inthe future.More severe or frequent weather events could increase food and energy insecurity, which could inturn accelerate an internal migration, mostly from rural to urban regions, increase pressures on infrastructureand social services, and exacerbate the already high pressure to address the acute unemployment problem. 4.This paper reviews Namibia’s vulnerabilities to extreme weather events and discusses public investment policy options.It reviewshistorical data on the impacts of severeweather events and presents likely futurescenarios, followed by a model-basedanalysis of the need for public investment tomitigate its effects. Since the impact onagriculture will likely be the most prominentchannel for such shocks to havemacroeconomic and socio-economicconsequences in Namibia, it builds on a two-sector model encompassing the agriculturalsector. Key recommendations include scalingup public development investment aimed atraising productivity in the agricultural sector,increasing public adaptation investment tobuild climate resilience of the